Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle Is Breaking And That's A Good Thing, Industry Expert Says

Bitcoin BTC/USD appears to be departing from its traditional four-year price cycle, according to industry expert Chris Burniske, who suggests the apex cryptocurrency will see milder drawdowns in the future.

What Happened: Burniske on Wednesday on X predicted that under a supportive U.S. administration, crypto could enter a “Goldilocks period,” marked by steadier growth and less extreme drawdowns.

For major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum ETH/USD, corrections of 85–95% may become a thing of the past. Instead, drawdowns could moderate to around 60%, particularly with the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), currently near $40,000, providing reliable support.

While drawdowns will persist, they are likely to be less severe as the market matures and recognizes the permanence of major crypto assets, diminishing “this is dead” sentiment.

However, such stability may not apply to meme coins.

Burniske emphasized that blockchain must be seen as foundational to the digital future, rather than a speculative “get rich quick” scheme.

Those treating crypto like lottery tickets are unlikely to succeed.

Also Read: Bitcoin Adoption Still Early, BlackRock Says

Why It Matters: Ari Paul, founder of BlockTower Capital, countered this positive notion, comparing the current blockchain landscape to the 1999 tech bubble.

While blockchain technology holds potential to shape the future, Paul argued that most existing protocols and tokens lack the radical innovation required for widespread adoption and scalability.

Incremental upgrades alone may not suffice to bridge the gap between niche and mainstream usability.

Paul also raised concerns about what could drive the next major growth phase for crypto.

Despite high-profile milestones like BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF push and President-elect Trump endorsing Bitcoin at conferences, fundamental issues persist.

Usability remains a significant barrier, with decentralized finance platforms still falling short of being user-friendly or robustly decentralized.

What's Next: Burniske forecasts a volatile but ultimately positive year for crypto in 2025, stressing the need to combat short-termism and pessimism in the market.

The approval of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana SOL/USD ETFs could further stabilize the market by introducing consistent buying pressure, reducing the extreme volatility that has historically characterized crypto markets.

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