The Trump Bitcoin Reserve Ushers in Golden Age

President Donald Trump is ushering in the age of Bitcoin and crypto with his support of a Bitcoin Reserve Act, which will likely make its way through the Senate during the President’s second term. Meanwhile, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler, who actively prosecuted crypto projects as unregistered securities, is no longer in charge of the SEC.

The crypto sector has already seen the benefits of a Trump Presidency. Indeed, Trump’s election caused Bitcoin's price to skyrocket by more than 40 percent in the aftermath of his US presidential election victory. The crypto optimism hails in part from Trump campaign trail promises to establish a Bitcoin Reserve. Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, from Wyoming, introduced the Bitcoin Reserve Act, which would direct the US Treasury to sell gold certificates, buy Bitcoin, and hold it for twenty years.

Trump has also generally embraced crypto. Both Trump and his wife, First Lady Melania Trump, have launched their own NFTs, and the Trump family have put their name on World Liberty Financial (WLF), a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform based around borrowing and lending, with a particular emphasis on stablecoins.

Bitcoin Reserve Under Trump

It's easy to see how a Bitcoin Reserve would benefit most Americans, and Trump knows it. The national debt, after all, has reached $36 trillion, an unsustainable level. The interest rates on that debt have topped $1 trillion. An increase in the price of Bitcoin could help pay down that debt.

Getting Americans used to the idea of holding Bitcoin could benefit them, as well. After all, any individual can hold millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin on their person. Furthermore, Bitcoin is semi-anonymous. Wallets are identifiable only through a public 27-34 character alphanumeric key. It's an asset one holds and secures with a seed phrase. Investors already use Bitcoin as a means of diversification away from stocks and bonds. 

Moreover, Bitcoin is 24/7 and precludes the need for banks or Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC). By opting to go digital via the private sector, Trump could ensure the nation avoids the pitfalls of a centrally controlled CBDC.

What's more, the world's view—in particular politicians and regulators—about Bitcoin has radically changed over the past decade, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic. That caused a paradigm shift, especially as inflation ravaged consumer's wallets.

The whole entire world has come to see Bitcoin as an asset, not as a currency. This has nullified the concern that Bitcoin could undermine fiat currency. Bitcoin is in competition with gold more than it is with the US Dollar. After all, its claims to being a peer-to-peer electronic cash as described by Satoshi have fallen to the wayside, and its long been seen more as a digital gold. 

Major institutions are predicting Bitcoin will climb to eight figures. VanEck believes Bitcoin will go to $52 million by the 2040s. Their base case is $2.9 million. 

The price growth only encourages people to hold Bitcoin and hold Bitcoin tightly. It’s no longer seen as an internet currency. El Salvador was the only country on earth where businesses had to accept it as a payment, though President Nayib Bukele recently changed the law at the behest of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is still holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset, however.

Traditional financial assets are connected to cash flows like interest or dividends. Since it is an inelastic asset, higher prices do not expand the Bitcoin supply from 21 million. Nearly 20 million have already been mined. Therefore, bitcoiners know what a government Bitcoin Reserve means for the price of Bitcoin. 

The Bitcoin Reserve Act requires the government to buy one million bitcoin over five years and then hold it for twenty years alongside bitcoin confiscated by law enforcement during the course of criminal investigations. 

The prospect of this bill alone, as well as Trump's positive attitude towards Bitcoin, is already causing a run to Bitcoin as institutional investors try to beat the government to the punch. 

The bill requires the government to purchase one million Bitcoin over five years, and then hold it for at least 20 years, along with Bitcoin already confiscated from criminal enterprises. If enacted, this would undoubtedly send the price soaring, as investors piled in to get ahead of the government's purchases.

What About Those Who Don't Hold Any Bitcoin?

How does a Bitcoin Reserve benefit the people in the United States who do not own Bitcoin? It benefits them because Bitcoin is the exit strategy from a fiat-based world of fractional reserve banking with its risk of bank runs, moral hazard, unequal wealth distribution, central bank dependence, inflation, and more.

Amid sky high national debt, the holding of Bitcoin by the US government could protect the nation's debt rating from downgrade in a manner similar to how El Salvador's credit rating has been increased since it began to purchase Bitcoin and pay down and refinance its debt. 

Under the Bitcoin Reserve Act, the Treasury would not have to borrow and drive up the cost to service the debt, nor would the Federal Reserve have to create money and cause inflation. The Bitcoin Reserve Act instead proposes selling gold certificates. 

The Trump administration will likely work on a set of laws and regulations to make the industry feel safe operating in the US. 

A lot is going right for Bitcoin and crypto at the current moment. On the campaign trail, Trump said he would work on stablecoin regulation, as well, such as defining them legislatively whether they are currencies or securities. Under SEC Chair Gary Gensler, the Agency would have perhaps categorized them as securities.

This was at least a worry among many crypto advocates. Under Trump's appointment to the SEC, the likelihood that stablecoins would be classified as a currency, and not as a security, has potentially increased. That would mean individuals can hold them in a similar fashion to how they hold fiat currency in their wallets.

Crypto could make the financial system less expensive and easier to use for asset trading, remittances, and more. After years of regulatory uncertainty, it looks like Trump will be the one to put the guardrails in. His light approach to regulation makes it seem like a golden age for Bitcoin and crypto is settling in upon the land. And, since the US has so much influence globally as world reserve currency, the effects will be felt globally.