The Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Is Dead, Analyst Says: 'Adapt Or Die'

Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher argues that the four-year crypto cycle is obsolete, replaced by a new market structure shaped by Bitcoin BTC/USD ETFs and macroeconomic trends.

What Happened: In a post on X on Monday, Deutscher stated that the traditional 4-year crypto cycle is no longer relevant due to two major shifts.

First, the Bitcoin halving has less impact, as each successive supply reduction becomes less significant in influencing price action.

Second, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs have altered demand, where instead of profits rotating into altcoins as in past cycles, ETF-driven capital stays within Bitcoin, disrupting the traditional BTC wealth effect.

This has skipped Ethereum ETH/USD and major altcoins, fueling direct speculation in smaller on-chain assets instead.

With these shifts, macro factors now play a larger role in shaping crypto's price action, rather than predictable halving-driven cycles.

Also Read: Why Bitcoin Outperformed Solana, Ethereum In Last Week’s Flash Crash

What's Next: Instead of waiting for an altseason, Deutscher urges traders to focus on short-term opportunities within emerging market narratives.

A more effective strategy in 2025 involves a balanced portfolio: 50% in long-term high conviction plays like Bitcoin, Solana SOL/USD and 50% in stablecoins or active trades, with a focus on compounding small wins over time.

By staying nimble and consistently taking profits, investors can capitalize on the evolving market structure while minimizing risk.

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