Zinger Key Points
- Polymarket traders see a 35% probability that Ukraine will provide Donald Trump rare earth metals before April 2025.
- Prediction market data indicates a 28% chance Donald Trump will successfully end the war within 90 days of his inauguration.
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President Donald Trump has launched a sharp critique of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy‘s leadership, claiming the Ukrainian leader “played (former U.S. president Joe) Biden like a fiddle,” prompting increasing speculation on prediction markets about Zelenskyy’s political future.
What Happened: According to Polymarket trading data, there’s a 23% probability that Zelenskyy could leave office before July 2025, while separate market predictions indicate a 29% chance that Trump could end the Ukraine war within his first 90 days if elected president.
In a strongly-worded Truth Social post, Trump criticized U.S. spending on the Ukraine conflict, stating that “the United States has spent $200 Billion Dollars more than Europe, and Europe’s money is guaranteed, while the United States will get nothing back.”
He also claimed his administration is “successfully negotiating an end to the War with Russia.”
The prediction markets have shown volatile trading patterns regarding potential outcomes in Ukraine.
The probability of Ukraine conceding rare earth metals to Trump before April stands at 34%, while bettors assign a 29% chance to Trump ending the Ukraine war within his first 90 days.
The trading volumes on these predictions are substantial, with one market showing over $17 million in volume, suggesting significant investor interest in potential Ukrainian political developments.
The markets demonstrate particular uncertainty about the period following the U.S. presidential election.
Why It Matters: Trump’s criticism focused heavily on financial aspects, questioning both aid distribution and European contributions.
He specifically referenced Zelenskyy’s background, describing him as “a modestly successful comedian” who convinced the U.S. to spend “$350 Billion Dollars to go into a War that couldn’t be won.”
In his statement, Trump also raised concerns about alleged missing aid money and Ukraine’s domestic political situation, though these claims would require independent verification.
The prediction markets reflect this general uncertainty, with probabilities suggesting significant potential for political changes in the coming months.
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This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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