Zinger Key Points
- Pal expects Bitcoin and altcoins to surge in 2025 and 2026 as financial conditions ease significantly.
- Solana’s recent 53% drop is a buying opportunity, with Pal forecasting outperformance through the extended cycle.
- Every week, our Whisper Index uncovers five overlooked stocks with big breakout potential. Get the latest picks today before they gain traction.
Real Vision Founder and CEO Raoul Pal on Tuesday forecasted that the current cryptocurrency bull market cycle, initially expected to peak in 2025, may extend into 2026 due to a prolonged business cycle.
What Happened: Pal addressed the chaotic market conditions, providing reassurance to crypto investors navigating sharp volatility and outlining why he believes the cycle's expansion aligns with broader economic indicators.
The seasoned macro analyst emphasized that the business cycle's sluggish pace below the key 50 threshold on the ISM survey—a measure of economic activity—is now showing signs of expansion, pushing out the timeline for the crypto market's peak.
"My view is that the business cycle is taking a long time below 50, it's starting to expand now.
That has probably extended the cycle into 2026," he stated, noting this shift is not yet a firm prediction but a structural observation based on current data.
He ties this extension to improving financial conditions, including a weakening U.S. dollar and anticipated lower interest rates, which he expects to fuel risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.
Pal highlighted Bitcoin’s recent retreat from a high of $110,000 to $80,000 and Solana’s 53% drop as typical volatility within a bull market, urging patience.
He referenced historical patterns, such as the 2017 cycle under Trump's first term, where a similar dollar-driven economic slowdown preceded a massive crypto surge.
Also Read: Bitcoin Bottom Will Be $70,000 ‘At Worst,’ Arthur Hayes Says
Why It Matters: Pal's analysis, backed by Global M2 charts showing money supply growth, suggests that after a choppy period through mid-March, prices could accelerate in April, May, and June 2025, with further upside into 2026.
Pal's framework, dubbed the "don't fuck this up" thesis, advises against leverage and overexposure to small altcoins, advocating for a portfolio anchored by majors like Bitcoin BTC/USD, Ethereum ETH/USD, and Solana SOL/USD.
He pointed to Solana's oversold status versus Global M2 as a buying opportunity, predicting it will outperform Bitcoin and Ethereum through the cycle's end.
"Solana should outperform Bitcoin for the rest of this cycle and Ethereum too, with SUI outperforming Solana," he asserted, dismissing claims of its demise amid a meme coin collapse.
Drawing on extensive research from Global Macro Investor, Pal connected crypto's trajectory to macro drivers like the ISM survey, which he expects to climb above 60, potentially pushing Bitcoin past $300,000.
He also noted forward-looking indicators, such as ISM New Orders Less Inventories rising sharply, signaling economic growth within three months that could lift crypto prices.
Despite seven 20%+ pullbacks in this cycle yielding 600% returns from the low, Pal stressed resilience, urging investors to "breathe deeply" and await the next phase of the banana zone, now stretched into 2026.
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