Bitcoin Down 17% In 30 Days: How Much Lower Can It Go?

Bitcoin BTC/USD is down 17% over the past 30 days, leaving traders and analysts speculating about how much farther the crypto king has to fall.

What Happened: In an X post on Tuesday, pseudonymous trader Astronomer said there is an 87.5% chance that Bitcoin has bottomed, based on historical price action around FOMC meetings, where it has reversed 14 out of 16 times (87.5%) before or on the meeting date.

With the next FOMC on March 19, historical data suggests the bottom would occur between March 5-19, placing us right in the expected timeframe.

Despite widespread bearish sentiment and traders lowering targets, the user remains firmly bullish, having gone fully long in real time.

They highlight that major high timeframe levels have been hit, cyclical analysis indicates a low is due, and an FOMC-day reversal is rare, further strengthening the case that the bottom is already in.

Additionally, the trader added that fear is peaking, with many traders making vague, cautionary posts, which the user interprets as a bullish sign.

Astronomer emphasizes acting on data and conviction, rather than following social media sentiment, and remain confident that Bitcoin will not drop to the low $70,000, $60,000 or $50,000 levels.

Also Read: How Cathie Wood Got Started With Bitcoin In 2015: ‘We Had To Ask The NYSE For Permission'

What's Next: In another X post, Astronomer confirmed he entered a long position and will hold unless BTC drops further. A deeper dip could invalidate the range deviation, requiring re-evaluation.

The trader added a hard stop loss at $75,000 for covering the lower CME gap fill, which leads into weak support, noting Bitcoin has pulled back from range high to range low as expected.

However, prices are now 1.5% below the anticipated range low.

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