Can Donald Trump End The War In Ukraine? Polymarket Traders Say The Odds Are Rising, But One Question Is Key

The probability of U.S. President Donald Trump brokering a ceasefire in Ukraine within his first 90 days back in office is on the rise, following Ukraine’s readiness to accept a 30-day ceasefire.

What Happened: Data from Polymarket, a leading prediction platform, shows that traders currently assign a 37% probability to the possibility of Trump brokering a ceasefire, up from 23% before the announcement.

Broader sentiment suggests a higher likelihood of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire happening by the end of 2025, with odds at 79%.

The divergence in these two forecasts showcase the skepticism surrounding Trump's ability to achieve a swift resolution while indicating a more prolonged pathway to peace.

Trump repeatedly claimed that he would end the war in Ukraine "within 24 hours" if re-elected.

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Polymarket's data highlights a sharp 14% increase in bets favoring Trump achieving a ceasefire within 90 days, likely driven by renewed optimism from his recent statements.

The 37% probability remains well below 50%, signaling that a majority of market participants still see significant hurdles to such a rapid resolution.

Political observers note that while Trump has influence over U.S. foreign policy, brokering an agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would require more than just diplomatic posturing.

Global markets, including crypto assets, have been closely tracking geopolitical uncertainty.

Bitcoin BTC/USD reacted positively to the announcement, up 4.5% over the past 24 hours to $83,100.

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