Bitcoin Is 'Past The Bull Cycle Peak,' Top Analyst Warns

Bitcoin's BTC/USD bull cycle appears to have come to an end, according to Ki Young Ju, Founder and CEO of blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.

The comments follow fresh signals from CryptoQuant's proprietary PnL Index chart, which now reflects a sell signal that has historically aligned with prior market tops.

What Happened: "We are likely past the bull cycle peak," Ju said, suggesting Bitcoin may face a prolonged period of sideways or bearish movement over the next six to twelve months.

The chart, spanning over a decade, plots Bitcoin's price alongside cyclical buy and sell signals derived from on-chain profitability metrics.

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The latest signal indicates a similar pattern to those seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021, each of which preceded either steep corrections or extended consolidation phases.

Bitcoin currently trades around $81,550, holding above key psychological levels despite broader market caution.

This resilience is echoed by Nexo Dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev, who described the market as entering a crucial consolidation phase.

"Bitcoin is at a critical juncture," Kalchev said. "Support is holding around $82,000, but deeper levels near $73,000 may come into play depending on market sentiment."

While recent inflows to U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs suggest some institutional confidence—with $274 million in net inflows recorded on Monday—the broader sentiment remains mixed amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

"The renewed ETF interest could be a positive driver, but this market could still go in many directions," Kalchev added.

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CryptoQuant's cyclical analysis reinforces these concerns, showing that Bitcoin tends to experience cooling-off periods following major cyclical tops.

The historical chart's orange sell indicators, including the latest signal for 2025, have often been followed by six to twelve months of weak or sideways performance before new buying opportunities emerge.

The wider market is also reflecting caution.

Kalchev noted Ethereum ETH/USD is hovering near $1,890, while Solana SOL/USD slipped to around $124 amid broader weakness in altcoins.

What’s Next: Amid these technical factors, the market's next moves could hinge on Wednesday's U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision, which may influence risk asset sentiment globally.

Geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary risks tied to U.S. tariffs have cast a shadow over investor confidence.

"This is a market in wait mode. Vigilance is key as institutional players weigh both the macro backdrop and on-chain signals,” Kalchev said.

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