Zinger Key Points
- Raoul Pal sees Bitcoin’s current consolidation as part of the ‘Banana Zone’ pattern, a setup before a major rally.
- If the ISM manufacturing index rises one standard deviation above trend, Pal gives BTC a 70% probability of reaching $210,000 by year-end.
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Macro guru Raoul Pal dismissed concerns about Bitcoin's BTC/USD recent weakness, calling it a normal consolidation phase before a significant move higher.
What Happened: In a podcast on Thursday, Pal described the current consolidation as a normal part of the "banana zone" pattern that precedes significant upward moves in the cryptocurrency market.
He compared Bitcoin's current price action to 2017, noting that a post-election dollar rally is temporarily tightening financial conditions, leading to weaker economic data but not a full recession.
“The dollar started rallying, which slows down global growth. This creates a short-term economic weak patch driven by financial conditions.”
The Real Vision co-founder pointed to several indicators suggesting Bitcoin has already priced in this economic weakness and is poised for recovery.
However, financial conditions are now rebounding "like crazy strong", which historically precedes Bitcoin price appreciation, Pal explained.
Also Read: Buying Bitcoin Now? ‘The Single Best Time In History,’ Bitwise’s Matt Hougan Says
Why It Matters: Pal's “global M2 liquidity model” has been a reliable Bitcoin predictor, and it now signals that BTC is “turning the corner” and could reclaim previous highs within months.
He reassured investors that 30-40% corrections in bull markets are normal, adding, “You don't remember these drops because, in the end, the gains compound. Volatility is part of how you get the impressive returns.”
What's Next: For longer-term price projections, Pal referenced the relationship between Bitcoin and the ISM manufacturing index, suggesting Bitcoin could reach $210,000 by the end of 2025 with a “70% probability” if the ISM reaches one standard deviation above trend.
More optimistic scenarios could see prices between $412,000 and $800,000, though with lower probabilities.
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This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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