Is Now the Time To Buy Bitcoin? Tariffs, Recession Fears and Predictions for BTC's Comeback

Bitcoin's price teetered under $79,000 on Monday, down more than 15% since the start of the year and well off its January all-time high of $109,114.88. The downturn has been fueled by President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff threats against China and a growing chorus of recession warnings from Wall Street's biggest voices.

Yet amid the market turbulence, some investors see the correction as a long-term buying opportunity—and there's a case to be made that Bitcoin's current dip is less a cause for panic and more a test of conviction.

Trump's Tariffs Rattle Global Markets—and Bitcoin

Trump's trade moves have upended global markets. U.S. equities opened sharply lower Monday following his threat to impose 50% tariffs on Chinese goods unless Beijing drops retaliatory duties. Asian and European stock indices plunged. 

And BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told the Economic Club of New York that the U.S. is "probably in a recession" already.

Bitcoin, often viewed as a non-correlated or safe-haven asset, hasn't been spared. BTC fell sharply last week and remains down significantly from its highs. But investors should know that Bitcoin isn't directly impacted by tariffs, as it's not a tradable good subject to customs or international shipping fees. 

However, indirect effects—like economic slowdown, liquidity crunches, and broad market sell-offs—continue to weigh heavily.

Analysts Say Bitcoin Could Fall Further— But Long-Term Outlook Remains Bullish

Fink warned that markets could fall another 20%, but also called current levels "more of a buying opportunity than a selling opportunity." His view echoes the sentiment of BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who said he's "nibbling on BTC all day" as it trades near $75,000.

The sentiment is supported by price forecasts. According to Changelly's April 2025 Bitcoin prediction table, BTC is expected to trade between $84,333 and $126,089 this month—with an average of $105,211. 

That suggests a potential ROI of over 53% from today's levels.

Bitcoin Prediction Table for 2025:

The forecasts reflect optimism about BTC's long-term performance—even if short-term volatility persists.

Bitcoin as a Safe Haven or Risk Asset?

While some continue to view Bitcoin as "digital gold," its behavior during this downturn suggests it still trades more like a risk asset. When markets turn chaotic, investors often liquidate crypto holdings to cover margin calls, pay bills, or escape volatility—and that's exactly what's happening now.

But the very forces causing panic today—inflation fears, political instability, and dollar devaluation—could be the same tailwinds that send Bitcoin soaring over the next cycle. As CoinTelegraph noted, some investors are already "buying the dip," while others remain on the sidelines, waiting for confirmation that the market has bottomed.

Is Now a Good Time To Buy Bitcoin?

It depends on your time horizon. If you’re a short-term trader, the volatility could be punishing. But if you're a long-term investor, buying during periods of fear and uncertainty has historically delivered strong returns—especially in assets like Bitcoin.

As Michael Saylor, CEO of Strategy, reminded investors Monday, "1 BTC = 1 BTC." Saylor's firm holds nearly 500,000 BTC, acquired at an average price of $66,357—still well below current levels.

So while no one can predict the bottom, the case for accumulating Bitcoin during macroeconomic turbulence continues to strengthen. Just be prepared for more volatility—and potentially more downside—before the next leg up begins.