Widening Credit Spreads Signal Potential Bitcoin Bear Market, 10X Research Warns

10X Research has identified a historically consistent warning sign of a Bitcoin BTC/USD bear market now flashing red: the widening of U.S. corporate credit spreads.

What Happened: According to the firm's latest analysis, the year-on-year change in the ICE BofA BBB U.S. Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread has turned positive—an event that has reliably marked the beginning of Bitcoin downturns in past cycles.

"When credit spreads begin to widen—as they are now—it's typically a signal that the correction in risk assets is far from over," the report stated.

The rise in the corporate credit spread suggests tightening liquidity and growing credit risk, both of which have historically pressured crypto markets.

The firm emphasizes that this signal isn't noise.

It has preceded all previous major Bitcoin bear markets. With spreads now climbing, the implication is that investors should brace for continued downside, rather than bet on a near-term recovery.

10X Research argues this shift coincides with broader macro uncertainty, including tariff-induced volatility, deteriorating shipping demand, and shifting consumer behavior.

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Why It Matters: Combined, these conditions may create the perfect environment for a deeper risk-off move across equities and digital assets.

"Bitcoin has already broken below its 21-week moving average near $89,000," the firm noted, referring to a key trendline that often signals downside momentum when breached.

Prices have since hovered around $77,000, and 10X Research suggests a test of $73,000—or even $60,000—is increasingly plausible.

While some market participants interpreted recent White House talk of a "90-day truce" with China as a sign of de-escalation, the report cautions against overconfidence.

"Many investors were lured into buying the dip, placing too much faith in reassuring statements from Trump and Bessent," analysts wrote. "But the data is telling a different story."

10X Research argues that pressure is not just building in risk assets, but also in the foundation of the financial system.

"The sharp decline in 3-year SOFR swap spreads signals rising stress in bank funding markets," the report adds, warning of a potential domino effect across credit and liquidity channels.

Given these conditions, 10X suggests it's premature to expect a recovery in either crypto or equities.

"This is not the moment to step in," the team concluded, referencing its previous warnings.

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