Trump Tariffs Are Pressuring Bitcoin, Bonds, Commodities, VanEck Warns

Portfolio managers at global asset manager VanEck say the Trump administration's sweeping new tariff regime is exerting widespread pressure across asset classes, with tangible impacts already visible in digital assets, commodities, emerging markets and fixed income.

What Happened: In an assessment released on Tuesday, VanEck professionals flagged recession risk, demand shocks and currency instability as key drivers of short-term market volatility, warning that continued escalation could severely damage investor sentiment and global capital flows.

"These tariffs are much higher and worse than expected," said Roland Morris, VanEck's portfolio manager for commodities. "The outlook for global growth has collapsed."

Bitcoin BTC/USD, for example, dipped from aggressively following the announcement, though VanEck noted that the digital asset continues to outperform traditional indexes like the Nasdaq.

Still, the broader message from VanEck is that tariffs have revived trade war uncertainty and weakened the dollar, conditions that have historically influenced asset behavior in multiple sectors.

"The Trump administration's April 2 tariff package has reignited global trade tensions and increased the risk of monetary fragmentation," wrote Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research.

He added that interest in Bitcoin as a neutral settlement tool is no longer theoretical—citing examples of energy transactions being settled in crypto in China, Russia, and Bolivia.

In commodities, the UBS Constant Maturity Commodity Index dropped 6% in two days post-tariff, with copper alone falling 14%.

Also Read: Raoul Pal Says Crypto Market Nowhere Near COVID-19 ‘Peak Fear’

"Commodity indexes were near all-time highs on April 2 before collapsing," said Morris.

He believes the longer-term outlook for gold remains bullish, while a weaker dollar may eventually support a commodity rebound.

Natural resource sectors are also under strain.

While VanEck's Shawn Reynolds believes that "a large portion of the downside has been priced," he acknowledges that tariff uncertainty is weighing heavily on global recession fears, especially as U.S.–China relations show no sign of improving.

Emerging market bonds and equities are similarly fragile.

Credit spreads are widening, and while EM currencies initially held firm, they have recently started to falter alongside U.S. equities.

"Spreads should widen on dollar-denominated bonds," said Eric Fine, Head of Active EM Debt, adding that liquidity risks in corporate debt are increasing.

Fran Rodilosso, Head of Fixed Income ETF Portfolio Management, highlighted that the newly introduced tariffs equate to lower growth expectations and higher risks of a U.S. recession.

He pointed out that spreads are widening across all risk-related debt categories—from investment-grade bonds to CLOs and high-yield loans.

Even municipal bonds, often perceived as insulated from global trade policy, are facing challenges.

Tariffs are expected to drive up the cost of infrastructure and healthcare projects, making replacements and expansions fiscally harder to justify.

"Some projects will be shelved; others will see cost overruns and strained financials," said Senior Municipal Analyst Tamara Lowin.

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