Why The Bitcoin Bull Market Is Back On At $93,000: Glassnode

Bitcoin's BTC/USD recent price slide has become more than just a correction, now reflecting a deep contraction in capital inflows, liquidity and investor sentiment, according to new on-chain data from analytics firm Glassnode.

What Happened: The firm's report released on Wednesday identifies $93,000 as a critical threshold that must be reclaimed to re-establish bullish momentum in the market.

The market downturn, triggered by global volatility following the U.S. administration's latest tariff announcements, has caused a wide selloff across digital assets.

Bitcoin fell from $83,500 to $74,500, wiping out $150 billion in market cap.

Ethereum's BTC/USD decline was even steeper, with the asset falling from $1,800 to $1,380, shrinking its market cap by $40 billion.

Capital inflows across Bitcoin have sharply declined.

The network's 30-day realized cap change, a measure of net new capital, peaked earlier this year at $100 billion per month but now sits at just $6 billion per month.

Ethereum has already flipped into net capital outflows, currently losing about $6 billion per month, as coins acquired at higher prices are sold at a loss.

Realized loss metrics support this weakening trend.

During the recent selloff, Bitcoin investors locked in $240 million in losses over a six-hour window, on par with previous major capitulation events.

Ethereum's figure was even higher at $564 million.

Glassnode notes that the magnitude of losses realized during this drawdown has started to decrease with each successive price leg lower, pointing to potential seller exhaustion.

Why It Matters: On-chain metrics also show a growing divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Since the FTX collapse in late 2022, Bitcoin has added $468 billion in realized market cap, compared to just $61 billion for Ethereum.

The disparity is reflected in investor performance: Bitcoin holders have now outperformed ETH holders for 812 consecutive days, the longest such streak on record.

Technical indicators suggest Bitcoin is sitting on a knife's edge.

The asset has broken below its 111-day, 200-day, and 365-day moving averages, marking a significant shift in market momentum.

The 111-day moving average at $93,000 was the first line of resistance that failed to hold.

Bitcoin's price has since hovered around the 365DMA near $76,000, which is now acting as critical support.

Short-term holders (STH), typically responsible for loss-taking during sharp corrections, are also trading below their cost basis.

The STH cost basis sits at $93,000, and Bitcoin's recent failure to reclaim that level reinforces weakening sentiment.

The market is now trading between the +1σ ($131,000) and –1σ ($72,000) bounds of this metric, with the $65,000 to $71,000 zone emerging as the next major support.

This lower range is also validated by other on-chain metrics.

Glassnode's Active Realized Price ($71,000) and True Market Mean ($65,000) suggest that a meaningful drop below this zone would leave a super-majority of investors underwater, likely triggering a deeper sentiment shift.

Meanwhile, the altcoin market has contracted 40 percent since December, with aggregate market capitalization falling from $1 trillion to $583 billion.

The drawdown is broad-based, with no major subsector spared.

Net capital flows across the Bitcoin network are beginning to grind to a halt, the report stated, warning that further downside could establish if the key $65,000 to $71,000 region fails to hold.

What’s Next: Until $93,000 is reclaimed, Glassnode's analysts say upward price action is unlikely to resume.

For now, the market remains in a state of structural fragility, waiting for either renewed capital inflows or a deeper reset.

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