Bitcoin Poised To Rise If Macro Obstacles Clear, Bitwise's Matt Hougan Says

Bitcoin BTC/USD is acting like an asset eager to climb higher if macroeconomic obstacles were to ease, according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management.

What Happened: Despite significant market turbulence, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience, trading flat over the past month amid global economic challenges, signaling a maturing asset increasingly viewed as a hedge against macro uncertainties.

Hougan's analysis on Tuesday highlights Bitcoin's stability, noting that it traded at $84,379 at the time of publishing his analysis, nearly unchanged from $84,317 a month prior, a mere 0.07% return over 30 days.

This steadiness comes amid major events, including the U.S. establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve and President Donald Trump's global tariffs.

"Bitcoin is acting like an asset that wants to go higher, if only macro obstacles would get out of the way," Hougan wrote, emphasizing its potential for growth once external pressures subside.

He expressed frustration at the market's lack of movement, stating, "When I think about all the time, energy and angst I've spent studying the market over the past 30 days, it makes me want to cry."

The report contrasts Bitcoin's performance with historical downturns, showing a shift in its behavior.

Since February 19, the U.S. equity market, as measured by the S&P 500, has fallen 12.0%, while Bitcoin declined 12.4% over the same period, a stark improvement from past corrections.

In 2022, the S&P 500 dropped 24.5%, but Bitcoin plummeted 58.3%.

Similarly, during the 2020 COVID-19 market crash, equities fell 33.8%, and Bitcoin dropped 38.1%. In 2018, amid a U.S.-China trade war, the S&P 500 slid 19.36%, while Bitcoin fell 37.22%.

"Since bitcoin crossed the $1 mark in 2011, it has never outperformed the stock market during a full-on market correction," but he believes this time could be different, given Bitcoin's relative stability, Hougan noted.

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Why It Matters: Hougan attributes Bitcoin's resilience to its growing maturity as a macro asset, driven by dual forces: its role as a risk asset with high volatility and its emerging status as a hedge asset akin to gold.

He explained that early in Bitcoin's history, its risk asset nature led to sharp declines during risk-off periods, but recent trends show a shift.

With corporations, institutions and governments, including the U.S., adopting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, its hedge asset narrative is strengthening.

This has resulted in a lower beta to equities during downturns, as investors increasingly treat it as "digital gold."

Hougan acknowledged critics who argue Bitcoin hasn't outperformed gold during this pullback, but he remains optimistic, asserting, "The world is unraveling, and bitcoin is trading above $80,000."

The report also reflects on Bitcoin's evolving investor base, noting that its current strength is a sign of broader acceptance and a more stable market presence, even as macro challenges like tariffs and equity market corrections persist.

This resilience underscores Bitcoin's potential to become a mainstream financial asset, balancing its risk and hedge characteristics in a turbulent global economy.

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