Bitcoin To Stay Range-Bound, But Options Trading Can Yield A Profit: 10x Research

Bitcoin BTC/USD is expected to remain within a broad trading range of $73,000 to $94,000, making the strategy of selling calls and puts to capture premium particularly effective, according to a recent report by 10x Research analysts.

What Happened: The analysis, which examines market dynamics amid ongoing trade war uncertainties, highlights a lack of clear momentum drivers and shifting investor behaviors in the cryptocurrency space.

The 10x report notes that Bitcoin ETF inflows have been tepid, totaling just $225 million year-to-date as of April, with the potential to turn negative due to market uncertainty stemming from President Donald Trump's tariff policies.

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This marks the third consecutive month of outflows for Bitcoin ETFs, a trend initially driven by arbitrage-focused hedge funds rather than genuine demand.

Despite this, a new cohort of buyers, wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, emerged following Elon Musk's endorsement of Trump in August 2024, increasing their holdings by 700,000 BTC to 4.6 million to become the largest wallet group.

However, these buyers, likely family offices and asset managers aligned with a pro-crypto stance, have paused accumulation, leaving the market without a dominant marginal buyer.

Analysts at 10x emphasize that this lack of a clear buyer, combined with subdued on-chain data, suggests Bitcoin will not break out of its current range soon.

"We expect Bitcoin to remain within a broad trading range, making the strategy of selling calls and puts to capture premium particularly effective," the report states, particularly as Bitcoin nears the midpoint of the $73,000 to $94,000 range.

Why It Matters: The report also highlights weak retail trading volumes and limited fiat inflows, as evidenced by muted stablecoin minting, which further constrains Bitcoin's upside potential and indicates continued underperformance for altcoins.

The market's recent rally has been driven by long-term holders focused on diversification rather than speculation, with a notable slowdown in new network addresses compared to previous cycles.

This buy-and-hold strategy, distinct from the transactional activity of past bull runs, aligns with monthly cycle indicators like the stochastic oscillator, which signal a late-cycle phase rather than a new bull run.

Despite short-term technical improvements, such as funding and basis rates ticking above the 10% hurdle rate, historically a 77% predictor of price increases three to six months later, the broader market structure remains weak.

The 10x analysts advocate for a sophisticated approach in this environment, noting, "In an uncertain environment… selling puts (and calls) allows traders to benefit from range-bound conditions."

With Bitcoin's support near $73,000 offering a risk-reward setup of 10% downside versus 20% upside, this strategy leverages option-implied volatility for attractive yields, contrasting with the near-zero premiums in basis trades.

The report further states that Bitcoin's market now demands a finance-oriented skill set, with traders needing to shift between high-yield income strategies, directional positioning, and capital preservation.

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