Zinger Key Points
- Despite moderating inflation, Powell faces political pressure to ease, but the Fed remains on a cautious policy path.
- Trump’s renewed criticism underscores growing frustration among political figures over the Fed’s slow response to economic softening.
- China’s new tariffs just reignited the same market patterns that led to triple- and quadruple-digit wins for Matt Maley. Get the next trade alert free.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday lashed out at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday, calling him "Too Late and Wrong" over the central bank's ongoing reluctance to cut interest rates, just as market forecasts increasingly price in a prolonged Fed pause.
What Happened: "The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time," Trump posted on social media. "And yet, ‘Too Late' Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete ‘mess!'"
Trump's tirade comes at a time when U.S. market participants, as tracked by Polymarket, are overwhelmingly betting on no change in the Fed's policy stance for its upcoming May 7 meeting.
According to Polymarket odds, the probability of no change in rates sits at a commanding 88%, while just 10% expect a 25 basis point cut and only 2% foresee a more aggressive 50+ basis point reduction.
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These expectations reflect widespread skepticism that Powell will move swiftly enough to ease financial conditions, despite signs of moderating inflation and Trump's claim that "oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down."
Polymarket's data points to this belief, suggesting the Fed may stay on hold until at least the summer.
The president added that "the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS," and argued Powell "should have lowered interest rates, like the ECB, long ago."
He concluded the post with a sharp warning: "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough!"
Why It Matters: This isn't Trump's first attack on the central banker he himself appointed in 2018.
But the criticism lands at a sensitive time, as markets navigate policy uncertainty, global trade tension, and a volatile macroeconomic backdrop.
According to Polymarket odds as of Apr. 17, there's an 18% chance that Trump will remove Powell from his role by the end of 2025, a slight dip from earlier in the week but still notable amid growing political pressure.
The Fed's recent report, which Trump labeled a "complete mess," has not been detailed publicly, but the criticism underscores a long-standing rift between Trump and Powell, whom Trump appointed in 2018 but later frequently criticized during his presidency for not aligning monetary policy with his economic goals.
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