Polymarket punters lowered the odds of a U.S. recession in 2025 on Tuesday, even as the International Monetary Fund acknowledged that the risk of a slump has risen substantially.
What happened: The odds in favor of the betting contract titled “US recession in 2025?” dipped 57% to 53% in the last 24 hours on the Polygon POL/USD-based prediction platform. The probability was 35% a month ago.
Meanwhile, $3.189 million has already been bet on the outcome. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession before January 1, 2026, or if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP is negative for two consecutive quarters.
Interestingly, the lowered probability contrasted with the forecast of the IMF, which raised its U.S. recession odds to 40%.
Moreover, in its April 2025 World Economic Outlook, the IMF projected U.S. GDP growth at just 1.8% for the year, marking a 0.9 percentage point cut from its January forecast. The global organization linked the downgrade to President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff policies.
See Also: Gary Black Shares Polymarket Data, Says Trump Tariffs Have Pushed Odds Of 2025 Recession To 57%
Why It Matters: The dip in odds coincided with a marked resurgence in the stock market and cryptocurrencies after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at a potential de-escalation in trade hostilities with China at a Washington event.
While the Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped a four-day losing streak, Bitcoin BTC/USD sailed past $93,000 for the first time since early March.
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