ARK's Bitcoin 'Bear Case' Is $300,000 By 2030—What's The Bull Case?

ARK Invest on Friday outlined a conservative price target of approximately $300,000 for Bitcoin BTC/USD by 2030, according to its report published this week.

The projection represents the firm's bear case scenario and is based on Bitcoin achieving moderate levels of institutional adoption and a partial displacement of gold's role as a store of value.

What Happened: In the report, ARK presents three scenarios for Bitcoin's future price trajectory: a bear case of ~$300,000, a base case of ~$710,000, and a bull case of ~$1.5 million per coin.

The bear case reflects restrained optimism, with relatively low market penetration assumptions across several key addressable markets.

According to ARK's modeling, the primary contributor to Bitcoin's value in the bear case is its positioning as “digital gold.”

The firm assumes Bitcoin will capture 20% of the current $18 trillion gold market by 2030.

This shift alone would account for nearly 58% of the $300,000 price target.

Institutional investment is projected to contribute meaningfully even in a conservative scenario.

ARK assumes that by 2030, 1% of the global market portfolio, estimated to reach $200 trillion excluding gold, will be allocated to Bitcoin.

This allocation would add another 32.7% to Bitcoin's total price accrual in the bear case.

Also Read: If Bitcoin Breaks $100K, This CEO Will ‘Gladly Admit’ Being Wrong About A Bear Market

Why It Matters: Emerging markets are anticipated to play a smaller, yet notable role.

The report estimates that Bitcoin could capture 0.5% of the ~$68 trillion monetary base of emerging economies by 2030, as individuals seek protection against inflation and currency devaluation.

This would account for roughly 5.5% of Bitcoin's price in the bear case.

Contributions from nation-state reserves and corporate treasuries are expected to remain limited.

The forecast assumes a 0.5% penetration of the $15 trillion global treasury reserve market and a 1% penetration of the $7 trillion global corporate cash market by 2030.

Bitcoin's on-chain financial services sector, including Layer-2 solutions like the Lightning Network and tokenized assets such as Wrapped Bitcoin WBTC/USD, are projected to contribute only marginally to the price in this scenario.

ARK models a conservative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% for this sector over the next six years, resulting in a 1.7% contribution.

Importantly, ARK's $300,000 bear case does not incorporate adjustments for Bitcoin's active supply. However, the firm notes that if "liveliness" metrics, which estimate active circulating supply are considered, price targets could increase by approximately 40%.

The report emphasizes that all price projections are subject to significant uncertainties, including regulatory developments, adoption rates, macroeconomic factors, and investor sentiment.

ARK acknowledges that Bitcoin's market behavior remains unpredictable and that forecasts should be viewed with caution.

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