Corporations Will Pour $330 Billion Into Bitcoin By 2029: Bernstein

Investment firm Bernstein expects corporate treasury allocations to drive approximately $330 billion into Bitcoin BTC/USD over the next five years, fueled primarily by public companies adopting Strategy's MSTR capital deployment model.

In a note published on Monday, Bernstein analysts outlined a base case in which listed corporates allocate around $205 billion to Bitcoin between 2025 and 2029, with Strategy contributing an additional $124 billion.

The firm said this projection hinges on continued replication of the MSTR playbook by companies with limited organic growth paths.

"Small, low-growth public companies with excess cash and limited prospects are likely to emulate MSTR's Bitcoin treasury strategy," the report stated.

Bernstein identified around 2,000 such firms globally that meet its screening criteria, holding a combined $3.8 trillion in cash and equivalents.

A 25% allocation from 20% of these firms alone could yield $190 billion in inflows.

MSTR, which has acquired approximately 554,000 BTC at a cost of $38 billion, continues to expand its exposure with an aggressive 42:42 capital strategy, raising $42 billion each from equity and debt markets by 2027.

According to Bernstein, the company has already completed about $27 billion of that plan.

The firm noted that public companies now collectively hold about 3.4% of the total Bitcoin supply, up sharply from 1.3% at the end of 2023.

This concentration of long-term holders is contributing to declining exchange balances, further tightening circulating supply.

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Why It Matters: A favorable regulatory backdrop is another catalyst.

Bernstein cited the SEC's revocation of SAB 121, allowing banks to custody crypto assets without affecting their balance sheets and the new FASB rules that let corporates mark Bitcoin holdings to market, instead of only reporting impairments.

Still, Bernstein cautioned that not all companies attempting to replicate MSTR's model will succeed.

"MSTR's edge lies in its financial innovation and track record of navigating multiple market cycles," the report stated. "Its ability to scale institutional-grade Bitcoin-linked instruments remains hard to match."

Even so, with growing capital market access, a declining BTC float, and a rising number of corporate imitators, Bernstein sees a structural supply squeeze taking shape, one that could reshape Bitcoin's long-term value dynamics.

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