The Nasdaq 100 index is showing an impressive rally, surging 33% higher year-to-date as of June 6. But with 19 trading sessions still remaining in June 2023, the tech-heavy index is on track to deliver its strongest first-half performance ever.
In fact, only in three previous instances, in 1998, 1995, and 1987, has the index generated higher returns during the first half of the year.
Since 1986, the average first-half return of the index has stood at 9.27%, making the 2023 performance already three times as large as the historical average.
A Striking Reversal: From Worst To Best
Just a year ago, the tech-heavy index, tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ, endured its worst first-half performance in history, plummeting by a staggering 29.8% between January and June 2022. The outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the start of Fed interest rate hikes contributed to this significant decline.
Chart: Nasdaq 100's First Half Returns (2022 vs 2023)
AI-Driven Surge and The 7 Magnificent Tech Giants
The remarkable surge in 2023 can be attributed to several factors. Rising expectations of a pause in the Fed's tightening policy, coupled with easing concerns over inflation, have played a positive role in the rise of tech industry shares. However, the primary driver behind this phenomenal performance has been the explosive growth of artificial intelligence (AI) companies. Mega-cap tech giants and companies associated with AI have propelled the Nasdaq 100's valuations to new heights.
Notably, seven key companies have made significant contributions to the index's performance year-to-date:
- NVIDIA Corp. NVDA has added 5.6 percentage points to the overall index's performance.
- Microsoft Corp. MSFT with 5 percentage points.
- Apple, Inc. AAPL has contributed 4.4 percentage points.
- Alphabet GOOG GOOGL added 3.31 percentage points.
- Meta Platforms Inc. META added 3.1 percentage points.
- Amazon Inc. AMZN added 3 percentage points.
- Tesla Inc. TSLA added 2.1 percentage points.
- When combined, these companies account for a significant portion, 80%, of the Nasdaq 100's returns recorded thus far in 2023.
Historical Performance: Nasdaq 100's Percentage Change in the First Half of Each Year
| Year | January-June Percentage Change (%) |
|---|---|
| 1986 | 22.92 |
| 1987 | 33.83 |
| 1988 | 20.98 |
| 1989 | 15.32 |
| 1990 | 6.52 |
| 1991 | 26.82 |
| 1992 | -8.95 |
| 1993 | 1.65 |
| 1994 | -9.5 |
| 1995 | 33.09 |
| 1996 | 17.54 |
| 1997 | 16.55 |
| 1998 | 32.64 |
| 1999 | 25.10 |
| 2000 | 0.21 |
| 2001 | -21.96 |
| 2002 | -33.97 |
| 2003 | 21.05 |
| 2004 | 2.88 |
| 2005 | -8.3 |
| 2006 | -4.8 |
| 2007 | 9.47 |
| 2008 | -11.97 |
| 2009 | 21.86 |
| 2010 | -7.62 |
| 2011 | 3.86 |
| 2012 | 12.59 |
| 2013 | 6.67 |
| 2014 | 7.52 |
| 2015 | 3.24 |
| 2016 | -1.5 |
| 2017 | 15.22 |
| 2018 | 9.47 |
| 2019 | 23.74 |
| 2020 | 15.39 |
| 2021 | 12.39 |
| 2022 | -29.84 |
| 2023 | 33 (as of June 6) |
Source: Tradingview
Photo: Shutterstock
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