Exxon Mobil's Big Bet: $20B Annual Buybacks, Doubling Upstream Earnings By 2027 Amid Pioneer Merger Scrutiny

Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM said it expects oil and gas production in 2024 to be about 3.8 million oil-equivalent barrels per day.

The company projects production to rise to about 4.2 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by 2027, driven by growth in the Permian and Guyana.

Since 2019, the solid execution of strategy has increased the earnings power of the corporation, adding about $10 billion to its annual earnings and cash flow at a real Brent price of $60 per barrel, ExxonMobil said. 

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These improvements provide a strong foundation to grow annual earnings and cash flow by $14 billion from year-end 2023 through 2027.

The company also announced it intends to deliver $6 billion in additional structural cost reductions by year-end 2027, bringing the total structural cost savings to approximately $15 billion versus 2019.

Upstream earnings potential is on track to more than double by 2027 versus 2019, resulting from investments in high-return, low-cost-of-supply projects.

The company now anticipates total annual capital expenditures and exploration expenses of $23 billion to $25 billion in 2024 and $22 billion to $27 billion annually from 2025 through 2027, generating an average return of approximately 30%.

The company remains on track to complete $17.5 billion in share repurchases in 2023 as part of the $35 billion repurchase program previously announced for 2023 and 2024. 

After the Pioneer Natural Resources Company PXD merger closes, the go-forward pace of the program in 2024 will be increased to $20 billion annually through 2025, assuming reasonable market conditions.

However, the merger deal is being investigated by certain U.S. antitrust enforcers. The Federal Trade Commission has sought additional information from the companies about the deal, Pioneer said in a filing.

This may be a step it takes when reviewing whether a merger could be "anticompetitive" under U.S. law, The Wall Street Journal reported. 

These apart, ExxonMobil is pursuing more than $20 billion of lower-emissions opportunities through 2027, which represents the third increase in the last three years, from an initial $3 billion in projects identified in early 2021.

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Price Action: XOM shares are trading lower by 0.08% to $100.36 premarket on the last check Wednesday.

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