Why This Tesla Analyst Thinks EV Giant Will Top Q4 Deliveries Estimate - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Tesla Set To Surpass Q4 Delivery Target? Top Analyst's Confidence Soars For Bullish 2024 On 'Strong Data'

Zinger Key Points

Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries were tracking slightly ahead of the 480,000-unit range, says analyst.
He views FSD and the Supercharger network to be worth an incremental $75 per share to the Tesla story over the next 12 to 18 months.

Tesla, Inc. TSLA is gearing up for its fourth-quarter deliveries, and Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives is optimistic about the electric vehicle giant surpassing expectations.

With the delivery report expected in a week, this could serve as a crucial catalyst for Tesla’s stock, which has experienced a subdued period since mid-July.

Key Insights:

Analyst’s Rating: Ives maintains an Outperform rating and sets a $350 price target for Tesla’s shares.
China Boost: Ives noted that fourth-quarter deliveries are slightly ahead of the 480,000-unit range, supported by robust data from the key China region. According to media reports, Tesla China’s registrations came in at 18,500 units in the week ending Dec. 24, indicating a potential record in quarterly deliveries for China.
Global Price Stabilization: Ives observes global evidence of “clear price stabilization,” with adjustments seen in various regions, including China. This should be “music to the ears of Tesla bulls after a 2023 that had some clear twists and turns,” he said.
Musk’s Strategic Move: Elon Musk’s strategic price cuts globally, aimed at boosting volumes, are expected to yield impressive volume, reaching around 1.8 million units in 2023. Ives commends Tesla for successfully navigating challenges in China, referring to it as a “Category 5 storm.”
Outlook and Goals: Tesla’s year-to-date global deliveries total 1,324,074, leaving the company just 475,926 units short of the 1.8-million annual delivery goal. Looking forward, Ives anticipates 25%-30% year-over-year unit growth, reaching 2.2 million to 2.3 million units. He envisions upside surprises, driven by Model Y sales in China and Europe.
EV Market Dynamics: Ives predicts a reacceleration in electric vehicle demand, with approximately 20% of autos in 2030 being electric. Tesla is expected to lead this charge, with potential catalysts including the Cybertruck, a sub-$30K EV launch, and advancements in auto gross margins and full self-driving software.
Monetization Opportunities: Ives identifies supercharger network monetization as the “golden vision” in Tesla’s future, with batteries and AI/FSD software contributing to the overall value. “We believe FSD and the Supercharger network are worth an incremental $75 per share to the Tesla story over the next 12 to 18 months,” he said.