Soft Landing? Don't Bet On It Just Yet: Fed's Barkin Indicates Further Rate Hikes Possible

Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin delivered a mixed message about the U.S. economy in his recent speech, signaling a cautious optimism regarding the potential for a so-called “soft landing,” while also not ruling out additional rate hikes.

“A soft landing is increasingly conceivable, but in no way inevitable,” Barkin said, regarding the economy slowing enough to bring inflation down to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

This scenario involves reducing inflation, which spiked post-pandemic, without triggering a significant economic setback.

The economy has shown resilience post-pandemic, but Barkin’s words remind us that we’re not out of the woods yet. The balance between controlling inflation and maintaining economic growth is delicate, and the path ahead is still unpredictable.

According to Barkin, there’s a risk that the cumulative effect of tighter monetary policy might hit the economy harder in the future. Additionally, geopolitical events or other unforeseen shocks could destabilize the economy.

More Rate Hikes? Maybe

A key point from Barkin’s address was his hint at more rate increases. “The potential for additional rate hikes remains on the table,” he stated, suggesting that the Fed might continue to raise interest rates to keep inflation in check.

The Fed official emphasized that continued strong consumer spending and tight labor markets might necessitate further rate hikes.

Barkin stressed the importance of being guided by data: “There's no autopilot. The data that come in this year will matter.” This approach indicates that the Fed’s future decisions will be heavily influenced by how economic indicators, especially inflation, are trending in the coming months.

Market Reactions

The U.S. dollar index extended gains after Barkin’s remarks, with the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF UUP up 0.4% at 10.00 a.m. in New York trading, on track for its fourth straight sessions of gains.

Treasury yields moved higher by about 4 basis points across key maturities. The 10-year yield approached the 4% mark, with the US Treasury 10-Year Note ETF UTEN down 0.4%.

Stocks continued to fall, with both the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and the Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ down 0.5%. Small caps underperformed, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM tumbling 1.3%.

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