Toll Brothers Paves The Way: 2024 Profit Projections Rise, Cementing Homebuilder Hopes

Toll Brothers Inc TOL shares jumped 5% on Wednesday after the company reported better-than-expected results, and offered a brighter outlook for homebuilders than recent data have suggested.

Shareholders would also have been pleased to learn the company plans to announce cash returns through the year — through dividends or share buybacks.

But it was the brighter-than-expected outlook for 2024 that drove shares higher across the sector.

“Based on our first quarter results, and with a strong start to the spring selling season, we are raising our full year guidance across all key metrics,” said Douglas Yearley, chair and CEO.

He added: “With a healthy job market, improving consumer sentiment, and continued low levels of resale inventory, we are optimistic that demand for new homes will remain strong in 2024.”

Also Read: Slump In Housing Starts: ‘Extremely Noisy’ Numbers Indicate Demand For New Homes Dipping

Rivals Have Also Been Optimistic

Reporting several weeks earlier, D.R. Horton Inc DHI, was also positive as it saw profit margins of 16.1% and year-on-year sales increases of 35% in its fiscal first quarter.

“The supply of both new and existing homes at affordable price points remains limited, and
demographics supporting housing demand remain favorable,” said Donald R. Horton, chairman.

Meanwhile, Lennar Corporation LEN said in its most recent earnings report: “Our strategy has positioned us particularly well as interest rates now seem more likely to moderate in 2024. We aim for a year over year delivery growth rate of 10% in 2024, at a gross margin of between 21% to 21.25%.”

Shares in D.R. Horton were up 1.5% at $145.80, while Lennar gained 1.2% to $152.75. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF ITB gained 1% to $103.57.

Housing Starts Data Shocker

Recent housing starts data had the market on its toes last week, as the January numbers showed a 14.8% slump on starts on new projects.

Analysts were quick to dismiss the numbers as anomalous — with some suggesting that severe winter storms across key regions were possibly responsible for delays.

Kieran Clancy, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the data didn't alter the broader upward demand trend for single family homes over the longer term.

"The monthly housing starts numbers are extremely noisy and prone to revisions, but the bigger picture is that single-family starts are trending higher," he said.

However, new buyers haven’t had much to encourage them over the past few weeks. As equity market investors have trimmed back their expectations on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts during 2024, mortgage rates, although off their highs, have begun to creep higher again.

Data from Freddie Mac released last Thursday showed that in the week to Feb. 15, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage climbed to 6.77%, up from 6.64% in the previous week.

With most of the homebuilders having now reported their most recent quarterly performances, the sector appears optimistic that consumer demand for homes will continue to test new supply, and that the market will remain buoyant through 2024.

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