Inflation Rises More Than Expected To 3.2% In February, Rebuffs Expectations Of June Fed Rate Cut

The U.S. consumer price index exceeded expectations in February, mirroring the robust performance seen in January and casting doubt on the imminent commencement of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

In February 2024, the inflation rate climbed to 3.2% compared to the previous year, as disclosed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday.

Here are the key highlights from February’s inflation report:

• The year-over-year change in the headline CPI index rose to 3.2% in February, surpassing both the previous and expected rate of 3.1%.
• The headline CPI saw a monthly increase of 0.4%, up from the previous 0.3% and matching the expected 0.4% rise.
• The core CPI, excluding energy and food items, eased from 3.9% in January 2024 to 3.8% in February 2024, slightly higher than the anticipated decline to 3.7%.
• On a monthly basis, the core CPI increased by 0.4%, in line with January’s figure and exceeding the predicted 0.3% rise.
• The shelter index experienced an uptick of 0.4% on the month, alongside a rise in the gasoline index, up 3.8% on the month. Together, these two indices accounted for more than sixty percent of the overall monthly increase in the composite index.

Market Implications And Reactions:

Market expectations for a Fed rate cut by June waned as traders adjusted their predictions in response to the higher-than-expected inflation report. Implied probabilities of an interest rate cut by June declined to 67%, down from 70% prior to the release.

The Federal Reserve is set to convene its two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting a week from now. Although no adjustments to interest rates are expected, investors will carefully analyze the revised economic forecasts provided by the Fed.

In December 2023, policymakers projected inflation to average 2.4% in 2023, 2.1% in 2025 and reach the 2% target by 2026. Based on these projections, the Fed hinted at the possibility of three rate cuts in 2024, four in 2025 and an additional two cuts in 2026, with fed fund rates potentially reaching 2.9%.

Yet with the latest inflation reports surpassing expectations, there is now a risk of revising these interest rate projections upward.

Following the release of the inflation report, the Dollar Index (DXY), tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF UUP, slightly surged.

Treasury yields remained broadly unchanged, with the two-year yield, sensitive to interest rate changes, trading at 4.55%.

Futures on major U.S. averages traded higher during Tuesday’s premarket session, with S&P 500 contracts up by 0.4% as of 8:35 a.m. in New York.

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