Shifting Gears: Tesla, Rivian Accelerate In EV Market, Lucid Hits A Bump

The electric vehicle market is populated with players Tesla Inc TSLA, Rivian Automotive Inc RIVN, VinFast Auto Ltd VFS, Lucid Group Inc LCID and Polestar Automotive Holding UK PSNY. Although the market has soured on the largest EV companies after sluggish growth, a Cantor Fitzgerald analyst remains optimistic that the EV market can outperform Wall Street estimates.

The EV Analyst: Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard issued Buy ratings for many major EV companies on Tuesday: Tesla with a $230 price target; Rivian with a $15 price target; VinFast with an $8 price target; and Polestar with a $5 price target. Sheppard also issued a Sell rating for Lucid with a $4 price target.

Tesla Takeaways: Sheppard cited Tesla’s price decrease in vehicles’ autonomous driving technology from $12,000 to $8,000 as a future revenue driver. The analyst also saw Tesla’s deal with Baidu Inc BIDU to allow Tesla to use Baidu maps in China as an encouraging sign toward future success in the Chinese market.

Sheppard also noted the importance of an Aug. 7 unveiling of Tesla’s self-driving taxis as an important catalyst. “Although we don’t expect this segment to launch before 2027, we do expect it to be a meaningful business segment for
the company over the long term,” said the analyst.

Rivian Takeaways: Sheppard remains encouraged by Rivian’s deal to supply Electric Delivery Vans to Amazon.com Inc AMZN. He also cited Rivian’s decision to end its exclusivity with Amazon as encouraging. “We continue to view this as beneficial, because it could result in additional revenue opportunities for Rivian although no other commercial
agreements have been disclosed at this time,” said Sheppard.

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VinFast Takeaways: Sheppard sees VinFast’s inherent price advantage given their production of vehicles in Vietnam as a “significant differentiator.”

The analyst is also encouraged by VinFast’s adoption of a dealer network. The company has signed on 16 dealers in the United States to date. “We expect the company to continue to aggressively pursue signing additional dealers over the coming quarters,” the analyst said.

Polestar Takeaways: Sheppard sees Polestar’s on-track decision to move a portion of their production to a Volvo factory in South Carolina as a means of reducing risk. Polestar currently produces all of its vehicles in China. The analyst also expects the introduction of the Polestar 4 vehicle to be well-received in the U.S.

Lucid Takeaways: Sheppard is less bullish on Lucid. The analyst sees encouraging signs that Lucid’s vehicles compare well to competitors, but is less confident in Lucid’s productive efficiency. “We remain Underweight given the company’s slower-than-expected ramp-up in production, industry slowdown in EV demand, the company’s additional capital needs (funded to 2Q25), and high persistent gross margins,” Sheppard said in the report.

TSLA, RIVN, VFS, LCID, PSNY Price Action:

• Tesla: up 2.5% at $176.28
• Rivian: up 2.5% at $11.18
• VinFast: down 8.0% at $4.19
• Lucid: up 11.7% at $3.14
• Polestar: up 0.7% at $1.35

(As of publication on Tuesday)

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Image generated using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.