Regeneron's Dupixent COPD Sales To Reach $20B By 2026, Analyst Sees Larger Addressable Market

RBC Capital Markets analyst Brian Abrahams reiterated an Outperform rating on Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. REGN, raising the price forecast to $1,299 from $1,200.

Abrahams surveyed 31 pulmonologist physicians who see high volumes of COPD patients.

The analyst writes that the surveyed pulmonologists were excited about the ph.III data, the proportion of patients they view as having type 2 inflammation, and the expected rapidity of adoption post-approval all suggest dupixent’s COPD sales potential and contribution to near and long-term revenue are likely to be higher than even our bullish expectations.

The actual use of dupi in 20% of the 3.5 million moderate to severe COPD patients likely to be engaged with a clinician would translate to $20 billion in U.S. sales just in COPD in 2026—far above our prior $1.4 billion estimate.

Based on this, the analyst further raised the initial addressable market and medium-term penetration estimates, and now see $4 billion+/$6.5 billion U.S./WW peak dupi COPD sales.

Per Abrahams, this is likely because of a higher-than-expected number of patients with an eosinophilic phenotype who could potentially qualify for dupi and relatively relaxed expected criteria for eosinophil counts.

The analyst adds that, Tezspire is likely to be a well-received competitor, potentially taking share long term, though it will ultimately help grow the COPD biologics market.

Abrahams slightly raises 2024 diluted earnings per share estimate to $40.65 from $40.64.

Price Action: REGN shares closed higher by 1.7% to $1,027.67 on Wednesday.

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