US Private Sector Activity Exceeds Estimates, Fastest Growth In 2 Years – Will The Fed Welcome The Data?

The latest surveys by S&P Global reveal an American economy firing on all cylinders in June, with robust activity and cooling inflation creating a goldilocks environment, giving the Fed more leeway to cut interest rates.

S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) For June: Key Highlights

• The Composite PMI rose to 54.6 in June, up by 0.1 percentage points from May and marking the highest level since April 2022.
• The Services PMI rose from 54.8 in May to 55.1, topping estimates of 53.7 as collected by Econoday. It marks the strongest services sector expansion in two years. Services activity has now risen for 17 consecutive months.
• The Manufacturing PMI also improved in its growth path, rising from 51.3 to 51.7, beating forecasts of 51.
• S&P Global highlighted an improved business confidence for the year ahead, notably in the service sector, along with increasing pressure on operating capacity due to rising demand, which has prompted firms to increase their payroll numbers for the first time in three months. 
• Another significant positive factor was that the output growth did not come with rising price pressures. The survey's measure of selling price inflation cooled to a five-month low, linked to slower growth in input costs, indicating a moderation of inflationary pressures.

The Economist Take

“The PMI is running at a level broadly consistent with the economy growing at an annualized rate of just under 2.5%.
The upturn is broad-based, as rising demand continues to filter through the economy,” Chris Williamson, chief business
economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, wrote.

Williamson revealed that selling price inflation has cooled again after rising in May, dropping to one of the lowest levels observed over the past four years.

“Historical comparisons indicate that the latest decline brings the survey's price gauge into line with the Fed's 2% inflation target,” he added.

Market Reactions

Stocks were relatively unchanged after the data release, with major U.S. equity indices trading in the red, except for the Dow Jones, as of 10:00 a.m. in New York.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY was down 0.3%, while the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ fell 0.5%. The decline was driven by a second consecutive day of profit-taking in tech and semiconductor stocks.

The world’s largest company, Nvidia Corp. NVDA, was 3.2% lower after closing 3.5% lower on Thursday.

Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing from 4.23% to 4.26% after the PMIs data.

The dollar strengthened by 0.2%, while gold, tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust GLD, fell over 1% for the day.

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