Tesla, Inc.’s TSLA third-quarter deliveries report, likely out before the market opens on Tuesday, has generated a lot of buzz as analysts see the electric vehicle maker turning things around.
The Expectations: Tesla will likely report a third-quarter delivery beat after reporting a year-over-year sales decline in the past two quarters, said Future Fund LLC Managing Partner Gary Black. Deliveries fell 9% in the first quarter and 5% in the second quarter.
Black also shared a screenshot of the company-compiled consensus sent by Tesla Investor Relations Head Travis Axelrod, which put the magic number at 461,978 units. If the company hits the consensus, it will report year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter growth of 6.19% and 4.06%, respectively.
Reliable Tesla number cruncher who goes by the X handle @Troyteslike estimates deliveries of 472,000 units for the quarter. Model-wise break-up of his estimates shows sales of 461,931 Model 3s/Ys and 24,539 other EVs (Model X, Y, Tesla Semi and Cybertruck). He models production to be at 486,470 units.
Black said @Troyteslike’s third-quarter estimates mark the biggest positive change versus the consensus, since 2021.
Why It’s Important: A big deliveries beat could change the narrative on Tesla stock and lead to a change in the two-year trajectory of negative earnings revisions, said Black. Tesla stock went through an extended lean patch after it hit an all-time high in late 2021.
The stock has been building momentum in recent sessions as investors factor in solid deliveries for the third quarter. Tesla’s fairly robust showing in China, one of its key markets, has given rise to hopes that the number could be strong this time around.
Tesla ended Tuesday’s session down 1.38% at $258.02, according to Benzinga Pro data, as it lock-stepped with the broader market that swooned following the aggravation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the Hurricane Helene that hit the Southeastern states and dock workers’ strike.
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