Gary Black Eyes Tesla Stock At $600 By 2030, Near-Term Target Raised To $300: Investor Explains Previous Stock Sales — 'In Hindsight It Was The Right Thing To Do' (Updated)

Editor’s Note: This story’s headline has been updated to fix a grammatical mistake.

The Future Fund LLC Managing Partner Gary Black has increased his Tesla Inc TSLA price target to $300 from $270, while projecting a long-term target of $600 by 2030, citing improved earnings projections and market indicators.

What Happened: Black announced on social media platform X that his revised 6-12 month target reflects an adjusted 2030 earnings per share (EPS) forecast of $16, up from $15. His analysis uses a PEG multiple of 1.5x and projects long-term EPS growth of 25%.

“[Wall Street] analysts continue to boost $TSLA FY'25 earnings and price targets to reflect higher FY'25 auto gross margins and delivery growth,” Black wrote. His adjusted earnings estimates now stand at $2.40 for FY’24 and $3.60 for FY’25, slightly above Wall Street consensus of $2.38 and $3.22, respectively.

The average Wall Street price target for Tesla currently sits at $227, with Black noting the $42 per share discount between Tesla’s current price and its target price is approaching the widest gap since June 2023.

I have raised my $TSLA 6-12 month price target to $300 from $270, based on my 2030 Adj EPS of $16 (up from $15), a PEG multiple of 1.5x, and expected long-term EPS growth of 25% (new 2030 PT $600 = $16 x 25% x 1.5x; at a 14.2% cost of equity, that equates to a present value of… pic.twitter.com/45y6VTnjok

— Gary Black (@garyblack00) October 28, 2024

Black also provided context about his fund’s past investment decisions, revealing they began reducing their Tesla position in September 2022 when the stock traded around $280, following Tesla’s EV price cuts. At that time, Tesla represented 12.2% of their portfolio.

“In hindsight it was the right thing to do for our investors,” Black stated, pointing out Tesla’s subsequent underperformance compared to the Nasdaq 100 index. While Tesla’s stock declined approximately 5% since then, the Nasdaq 100 has gained roughly 66%.

We started trimming $TSLA when it was our largest position in Sept 2022 at around $280 when TSLA cut EV prices. In hindsight it was the right thing to do for our investors as $TSLA significantly underperformed (TSLA -5% vs NDX +66%) over the next two years. pic.twitter.com/xI8QRPtLXy

— Gary Black (@garyblack00) October 28, 2024

See Also: Ford Q3 Earnings: Revenue Beat, EPS Beat, EV Sales Down 33%, Updated Outlook, Shares Slide

Why It Matters: In recent weeks, Tesla’s third-quarter earnings have significantly exceeded expectations, with the company reporting adjusted earnings per share of $0.72, surpassing Wall Street’s estimate of $0.58, according to Black.

Furthermore, Elon Musk recently commented on Tesla’s stock volatility, likening it to a “rollercoaster” and referencing Warren Buffett‘s analogy about the stock market.

However, not all analysts share the same optimism. An analyst with an 86% accuracy rate recently predicted an 11% downside for Tesla, highlighting the varied opinions among market experts.

Price Action: Tesla stock closed at $262.51, down 2.48% on Monday. In after-hours trading, the stock slipped further 0.92%. Year-to-date, Tesla has gained 5.67%, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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Image Via Tesla

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.