Wall Street Struggles Ahead Of Election Day, Energy Sector Outperforms, Solar Stocks Rise: What's Driving Markets Monday?

The U.S. stock market struggled to gain momentum on Monday as investors remained cautious ahead of Election Day on Tuesday.

Vice President Kamala Harris holds a 1-point lead over ex-President Donald Trump, according to the New York Times national polling average; she has a 4-point lead among likely voters nationally, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll.

Betting markets, as tracked by the CFTC-regulated Kalshi, favor a Trump win at a 53% chance, but with diminishing odds compared to previous weeks. Also, the betting odds are susceptible to wild swings from so-called "whale" bettors, including one individual on Polymarket who spent as much as $43 million on a Trump victory.

See Also: Polymarket’s All-Time Leading Trader Bets Over $500,000 On Kamala Harris, Slams Nate Silver For Including ‘Fake Poll’ Data In Model

“Neither candidate holds a meaningful edge in enough states to win 270 electoral votes. In the history of modern polling, there's never been a race where the final polls showed such a close contest,” said Nate Cohn, chief political analyst for the New York Times.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, while the Dow dropped 0.6%, hitting its lowest intraday level since mid-September. In contrast, small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 outperformed, rising 1%. The Nasdaq 100 also retreated, dipping below the 20,000 mark.

Treasury yields fell by nearly 10 basis points as investors scaled back positions linked to Trump’s inflationary policies, such as high tariffs and more expansionary fiscal measures. The dollar also weakened, down 0.5%.

The increasing likelihood of a Harris victory gave a boost to solar and renewable energy stocks, with the Invesco Solar ETF TAN climbing 3.6%.

Oil and gas stocks also gained, as crude prices surged 3% after OPEC+ postponed an anticipated production hike. Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM jumped 3%, marking its largest single-day gain since late June.

Gold held steady at $2,740, while Bitcoin BTC/USD fell over 1%, dropping below $68,000.

Monday’s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs

Major Indices	Price	1-day %chg
Russell 2000	2,230.95	1.0%
S&P 500	5,715.31	-0.2%
Nasdaq 100	19,978.22	-0.3%
Dow Jones	41,807.92	-0.6%

According to Benzinga Pro data:

• The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY rose 0.1% to $570.22.
• The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average DIA fell 0.5% to $418.44.
• The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust Series QQQ fell 0.2% to $486.77.
• The iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM rose 1.1% to $221.27.
• The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund XLE outperformed, rising 1.7%. The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund XLU lagged, down 1.5%.

Monday’s Stock Movers

Stocks reacting to earnings reports included:

• Zoetis Inc. ZTS, down 3.9%,
• Constellation Energy Corp. CEG, down 10.5%,
• Marriott International MAR, down 1.8%,
• Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. FIS, down 0.4%,
• Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. PEG, down 5.9%,
• TPG Inc. TPG, down 5.5%.
• Fox Corp. FOX, up 3.7%,
• YUM China Holdings YUMC, up 7.9%,
• Loews Corp. L, down 4.8%,

Stocks slated to report earnings after the close are Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. VRTX, Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR, NXP Semiconductors NV NXPI, Diamondback Energy Inc. FANG, American International Group Inc. AIG, Illumina Inc. ILMN, Hologic Inc. HOLX and Astera Labs Inc. ALAB.

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