Tesla Inc. TSLA faces diverging forecasts for its 2025 delivery growth, with Wall Street’s expectations clashing with independent analysts’ predictions amid uncertainty over new vehicle launches and potential policy changes.
What Happened: The Future Fund LLC‘s Managing Partner Gary Black highlighted on Sunday that while Wall Street projects Tesla’s fiscal 2025 deliveries at 2.07 million units, representing 16% year-over-year growth, respected Tesla forecaster Troy Teslike anticipates a 1% decline.
This contrasts with CEO Elon Musk‘s guidance of 20-30% growth provided during the third-quarter earnings call.
Black emphasized that Tesla’s 2025 performance hinges on three key factors: the success of the Model Y Juniper refresh, demand for the upcoming $30,000-$35,000 vehicle expected to be unveiled in the first half of 2024, and progress in Full Self-Driving technology.
Wall Street may lower its 2025 delivery forecast of 2.07 million units (+16% YoY) and earnings projection of $3.24 per share (+34% YoY), potentially pushing Tesla’s stock down to the $350-$375 range, a decline on approximately 13%, irrespective of management’s statements on autonomy, according to Black.
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Why It Matters: The potential elimination of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit under the President Donald Trump administration poses additional challenges. Black argues this would disproportionately impact Tesla, with U.S. sales representing 30-35% of its global volume, compared to just 4-5% for traditional automakers’ EV sales.
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives maintains a more optimistic outlook, recently raising Tesla’s price target to $550, citing growing confidence in demand and autonomous driving potential. However, Tesla’s fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings estimates have declined 39% and 45% respectively over the past year.
The upcoming earnings call could be pivotal, with Wall Street closely watching fourth-quarter automotive gross margins, forecast at 16.2% excluding regulatory credits. The previous quarter saw better-than-expected margins of 17.1%, though CFO Vaibhav Taneja cautioned about sustainability challenges in the current economic environment.
Price Action: Tesla stock closed at $406.58 on Friday, down 1.41% for the day. In after-hours trading, the stock dipped further by 0.27%. Over the past year, Tesla’s stock surged 121.87%, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
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