Nvidia GTC And Quantum Computing Drivers Of The Stock Market, Trump Put Fails But May Not Be Dead

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Market Drivers

Please click here for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp (NVDA).

Note the following:

• This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
• Nvidia GPU Technology Conference 2025 (Nvidia GTC) and quantum computing will be big drivers of the stock market this week.
• The chart shows that NVDA stock dipped below the mini support zone but did not reach the support zone before bouncing.  Technically, this is a positive.
• When NVDA stock fell below the mini support zone, the mini support zone became the mini resistance zone.  The chart shows that NVDA stock cut through this zone like a hot knife through butter.  This is a positive.
• The reason behind the up move in NVDA from the lows is investor enthusiasm about Nvidia GTC.
• In The Arora Report analysis, enthusiasm about Nvidia GTC among investors is extremely high — for NVDA stock to sustain its up move, Nvidia will have to come up with more positive announcements than currently expected.  If Nvidia does not come up with positive surprises, Nvidia stock can turn down again.
• Nvidia's GTC starts today.  CEO Jensen Huang will give the keynote address tomorrow.  Expectations are for Nvidia to showcase Blackwell Ultra chips and next generation Rubin chips.  Rubin chips will not ship until 2026.
  • On the positive side, expectations are for Nvidia's data center revenue to reach $237B  by January 2027.  That is more than double current revenue.  When expanded, expectations are for an average annual growth rate between now and 2029 of 30%.
  • On the negative side, Nvidia is facing increasing competition from in-house chips from the likes of Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) and Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG).  Additionally, efficiency improvements, like those claimed by DeepSeek, can alter the demand outlook for Nvidia's premium chips.
• Nvidia GTC will also include Nvidia's Quantum Day with a panel discussion on March 20 that includes IONQ Inc (IONQ), D-Wave Quantum Inc (QBTS), and Rigetti Computing Inc (RGTI).  There is immense investor interest in this panel.  However, momo gurus who had not heard about quantum computing until a few months ago, have now become quantum experts.  These newly minted experts are driving quantum stocks beyond reality; pump and dump schemes as well as short squeezes are common.
• The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.  Prudent investors pay attention to retail sales data.  Retail sales came weaker than expected.  Here is the latest retail sales data.
  • Headline retail sales came at 0.2% vs. 0.7% consensus.
  • Retail sales ex-auto came at 0.3% vs. 0.4% consensus.
• In The Arora Report analysis, going into today, whisper numbers had moved below consensus numbers for retail sales.  Retail sales data is better than the whisper numbers.  For this reason, buying is coming in on weaker retail sales.
• There are major events ahead this week:
  • Trump speaking with Putin
  • FOMC meeting
  • Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting
  • Bank of England (BOE) meeting
  • Germany defense spending
• The Trump put has failed.  In our analysis, the Trump put may have failed for now, but it is likely not dead.  Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said "I've been in the investment business for 35 years, and I can tell you that corrections are healthy, they are normal.  I‘m not worried about the markets."  Prudent investors should note that Bessent used the word "correction."  Correction means a 10% draw down.  The stock market is already there.  Bessent did not address a bear market.  Here is the key question for prudent investors: Will the Trump put come into the picture if the stock market starts approaching a bear market level?  A bear market level is 20% or more down.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms Inc (META), and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Microsoft Corp (MSFT) and Tesla Inc (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (SLV).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (USO).

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is range bound.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.  The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.  A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever Generate Wealth Newsletter.