Deepwater Asset Management‘s Gene Munster is bracing for disappointing Tesla Inc. TSLA delivery numbers when the electric vehicle maker reports first-quarter figures on Wednesday, warning investors that the coming months could be even more challenging.
What Happened: “The March number is likely going to be ugly. The June will likely be worse. Then things begin to slowly improve,” Munster wrote Tuesday on X, signaling a dramatic reversal for a company that once projected 20-30% growth.
The Tesla bull anticipates first-quarter deliveries around 355,000 units, down approximately 8% year-over-year, significantly below analyst consensus estimates of 377,592. His projection aligns with prediction markets, where Kalshi traders give only a 56% probability of Tesla exceeding 350,000 deliveries.
“I feel 35% less wealthy over the past few months since the Tesla numbers started to come down,” Munster told CNBC’s “Closing Bell,” characterizing 2025 as a “throwaway year” for the automaker.
Why It Matters: Despite the near-term pessimism, Munster maintains his long-term optimism, citing Tesla’s “physical AI” competitive advantage through initiatives like Optimus robots and robotaxis. “Ultimately, I think investors are going to get behind that,” he said, noting Tesla’s $37 billion cash position provides ample runway.
The anticipated delivery decline comes amid concerns about CEO Elon Musk‘s increasing political involvement affecting brand perception. A recent Benzinga poll revealed 53% of respondents would “never own a Tesla,” highlighting potential demand challenges as the company looks toward recovery later this year.
Price Action: Tesla Inc. closed at $268.46 on Tuesday, up 3.59% for the day. In after-hours trading, the stock dipped 0.14% to $268.08. Year to date, Tesla’s stock has declined by 29.22%.
Tesla stock has shown strong momentum compared to rivals Nio Inc. NIO and Lucid Group Inc. LCID. However, it lags behind Rivian Automotive Inc. RIVN in short- to long-term price trends, according to Benzinga Edge Stock Ranking. Sign up to learn more.
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