Options Corner: Sleeping Giant Home Depot Offers A High-Odds Play That No One's Watching

One of the blue-chip icons, home improvement retailing giant Home Depot Inc HD usually represents a sturdy hand, no matter what the economic conditions. It's not exciting in any sense of the word but it pays a dividend. Further, the products that it offers are essential. That said, HD stock hasn't had a great run this year, losing about 6% on a year-to-date basis. Still, the wind may be shifting.

Primarily, sentiment appears to be picking up in the homebuilding industry. Sector giants Toll Brothers Inc TOL and KB Home KBH have both started Monday on a strong footing. Further, both securities have witnessed upside momentum in the past five sessions, with the former gaining over 5% and the latter moving up nearly 4%. Even some real estate listing specialists, such as Zillow Group Inc ZZG have risen in recent sessions.

To be sure, the real estate market is a tricky beast. Last month, data released by the National Association of Realtors revealed that in April, U.S. home sales sank to a six-month low due to high interest rates curtailing buyer confidence. Adding to the dilemma, it's not entirely clear when (or if) rates will decline. In May, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell remarked that monetary policy was in a "good place" and that the central bank would wait for more clarity.

Driving much of the uncertainty is President Donald Trump's tariffs, which have rattled multiple segments of the business community. At the same time, the administration has made progress in securing what it deems more favorable terms, which has led to substantive results. For example, Boeing Co. BA will resume deliveries to Chinese airlines after a month-long pause triggered by rising trade tensions.

By logical deduction, it wouldn't be that much of a stretch to assume that some negotiations could occur regarding one of the central issues impacting homebuilders: lumber tariffs. Throughout the imposition of levies, Trump has barked loudly but has also walked back his aggressive posture. So, it may not be all doom and gloom for HD stock.

On a secondary note, Home Depot still benefits from everyday demand. Pipes don't care if economic conditions are worsening; they will break when they break (and often at inopportune moments). The immediacy of this business — by offering ample physical locations — also helps mitigate pressure from online competitors.

Statistical Framework Bodes Well For HD Stock

While narratives provide context and color for those with a long-term investment view, they're not always granular enough for traders. Wall Street analysts love giving out 12-month price targets because these allow the thesis breathing room. In such circumstances, the "why" of an investment is central. But for traders, the focus is on the "how" — as in how much, how fast and how likely.

Especially for options traders, the multi-layered risk profile requires more fine-tuned data. While options provide leverage, thus multiplying relatively small returns in the open market for big payouts in the derivatives market, they also expire. This means that a trade must be profitable in terms of the price target (y-axis) and within the allotted time period (x-axis).

Subsequently, probabilities represent the central concern among options traders. The problem is that the underlying statistical analysis to extract probability matrices cannot occur without stationarity; that is, the metric of comparison must be temporally consistent. Unfortunately, both fundamental and technical analysis run into the stationarity problem as their valuation and price (and price-derivative) metrics often drift over time.

What is consistent across time is market breadth, the sequences of accumulative and distributive sessions. Market breadth is essentially a representation of demand and demand is binary — it's either happening or it's not. As such, demand profiles are easily categorizable and quantifiable, lending themselves to statistical rigor.

In the past two months, HD stock printed an "8-2-U" sequence: eight up weeks, two down weeks, with a net positive trajectory across the 10-week period. Over the past decade, this pattern has emerged 31 times. In 61.29% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 1.23%.

If the implications of the 8-2-U pan out as projected, HD stock could potentially rise to $371.79, based on last Friday's closing price of $367.27. Should the bulls maintain control of the market, it's possible that within the next three weeks, an attempt can be made to push the price toward $375.

Aggressive Leverage To Boost A Boring Name

Those interested in playing the numbers may consider the 365/370 bull call spread expiring June 27. This transaction involves buying the $365 call and simultaneously selling the $370, for a net debit paid of $290. Should HD stock rise through the short strike price at expiration, the maximum reward is $210, a payout of over 72%.

Arguably, the above represents the most aggressive trade that has a solid chance of being profitable. However, for those who really want to swing for the fences, there is another spread available: the 370/375 bull spread, also expiring June 27. This transaction requires a net debit of $220 but the max reward is $280 (if HD rises through $375 at expiration), a payout of over 127%.

It's going to come down to risk tolerance. Looking at the empirical data, a price target of $372 is reasonable based on median performances following the 8-2-U sequence. But the median also means that the actual figure could come in higher or lower. It's a probability, not a guarantee.

Still, on a final note, the chance that HD stock will rise on any given week is 55.51%. Therefore, the current demand profile is offering 5.78 percentage points of favorable odds. Again, while this doesn't guarantee upside, it incentivizes a debit-based options strategy.

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