Gary Black's 2021 TSLA Stock Exit Dodged A 30% Drop: Can Valuation Discipline Outsmart Tesla's 2025 Robotaxi Hype

As Tesla Inc. TSLA gears up for its much-hyped Robotaxi service launch, investors are revisiting the disciplined valuation strategy of Gary Black, who sidestepped a 30% downturn by exiting TSLA in 2021.

What Happened: With Tesla's stock trading at a staggering price, which is 166.67 times higher than its 2026 earnings, questions arise: can Black's approach outmaneuver the speculative frenzy surrounding the Robotaxi rollout?

The EV maker’s forward price-earnings ratio is 6.47 times more expensive than its industry’s average of 25.75.

The managing partner at Future Fund LLC, Black, underscored his strategy of selling when TSLA exceeds his valuation target, which demonstrated its efficacy in 2021. By offloading shares at a peak, he avoided a significant drawdown, a move that paid off as he rebought at a lower price.

“Valuation discipline is when one sells a stock that has reached one's price target. It's not day-trading,” he said in his X post.

He shares this anecdote after the Future Fund sold its entire TSLA holding in May 2025, marking the first time since 2021 that the firm did not hold a position in the stock.  

This is relevant today as the stock trades at skyrocketing valuations despite weak first-quarter earnings and a decline last week following President Donald Trump‘s social media spat with Elon Musk.

Apart from this, the investor optimism around the Robotaxi service launch in Austin, Texas, was also delayed as Musk changed it to June 22, “tentatively.”

Targeting this delay, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research said that it will be valuable for Tesla shareholders for Musk to delay “the actual FSD launch indefinitely so as Wall Street can continue to put a ridiculous valuation on a biz that does not exist.”

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Why It Matters: TSLA shares were 1.69% higher in premarket on Wednesday and rose 5.67% to $326.09 per share on Monday. The stock was down 14.02% year-to-date, but it has returned 91.08% over the year.

As Black bats for selling the stock at its target price, about 26 analysts covering TSLA, tracked by Benzinga, have a consensus target price of $306 apiece, with a ‘hold’ rating.

The targets range from $19.05 to $500, and the recent ratings by Morgan Stanley, Baird and Goldman Sachs imply a 1.51% upside for the stock.

Additionally, Tesla is the most expensive stock among its peers as it trades higher than General Motors Company GM and Ford Motor Company F, which have the same forward P/E industry average of 25.75.

Meanwhile, it is more expensive than other automotive companies like Toyota Motor Corporation TM and BYD BYDDY.

Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings shows that Tesla had a stronger price trend over the short, medium, and long term. Its momentum ranking was solid; however, its value ranking was poor at the 9.41th percentile. The details of other metrics are available here.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ, which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, were slightly lower in premarket on Wednesday. The SPY was down 0.16% at $602.13, while the QQQ declined 0.11% to $533.60, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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