French Nuclear Umbrella Plan May Be Wishful Thinking

France has indicated it could extend its nuclear umbrella in response to concerns about the US security commitment to Europe. However, that may be expressing wishful thinking.

President Emmanuel Macron plans to "launch a strategic debate" on French nuclear deterrence to protect Europe." He has called for Europe's second-largest economy to strengthen its military "as quickly as possible" and “accelerate reindustrialization."

“We have a shield, they don’t," Macron told Le Parisien, referring to European allies. "We need a strategic dialogue with those who don’t have it, and that would make France stronger.”

However, French plans to replace the US would face multiple challenges, including domestic political opposition and declining military influence after losing African bases. France also lacks logistical capabilities and existing European nuclear deterrence of the US.

The Trump administration's pressure on Europe to expand defense spending and criticism has sparked a debate about Europe's nuclear deterrence. Trump threatened potential troop withdrawals or relocating US troops stationed across Europe.

"Europeans are worried that the US might even go as far as withdrawing the nuclear weapons stationed there as part of its extended deterrence agreement with NATO," Marion Messmer, a senior research fellow in the International Security Programme at Chatham House, wrote on March 12.

European Leaders Support French Nuclear Umbrella Idea

European leaders have called for Paris to extend its nuclear umbrella across Europe.

Friedrich Merz, the leading candidate for German Chancellor, urged France to "share" its nuclear capabilities with other European allies.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told the country's parliament on March 7 that "we are talking seriously with the French about their idea of ​​a nuclear umbrella over Europe."

Baltic nations showed interest in Macron's offering as they pushed for more defense spending by EU countries to avoid any future aggression by neighboring Russia. Lithuania's President Gitanas Nausėda praised it as a "very interesting idea."

However, Russia has pushed back against the French nuclear overture.

The country's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov labeled Macron's statements a "threat against Russia." Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the rhetoric "extremely confrontational," suggesting it reflected France's desire to escalate tensions and assert nuclear leadership in Europe.

Domestic Political Opposition Opposes French Nuclear Umbrella

French opposition politicians are also wary of extending France's nuclear umbrella.

"The French nuclear deterrent must remain a French nuclear deterrent," Right-wing National Rally party leader Marine Le Pen said. "It must not be shared, let alone delegated."

Far-left France Unbowed party member and defense expert Bastien Lachaud said the idea was "a very clear break with French deterrence doctrine."

France has the EU's strongest military force. Global Firepower's 2025 annual defense report ranked it the world's seventh most powerful military.

French Nuclear Umbrella Would Be Far Smaller Than US

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has questioned France's ability to deploy its nuclear umbrella across Europe. France's nuclear forces, primarily airborne and submarine-based, lack the breadth of the US's extended deterrence.

CSIS fellows Astrid Chevreuil and Doreen Horschig said on March 4 that France, with less than 300 nuclear warheads, has a "far smaller" arsenal than the US, which possesses a total of 1,700 deployed warheads.

"Replacing the US extended deterrent as it exists would require strenuous efforts on the part of European allies, which makes this perspective even more unlikely."

The US security guarantee dates back to 1949 and includes US nuclear weapons kept on European territory. The US has not so far suggested withdrawing US nuclear weapons from Europe or made any practical moves to signal this.

Macron Highlights Historic French Nuclear Capabilities

To support France's nuclear push, Macron has emphasized the historic role French nuclear capabilities have played in maintaining the security of a post-World War II Europe.

"Our nuclear deterrent protects us," Macron said. "It is comprehensive, sovereign, and French from start to finish."

He assured that deploying these capabilities "will always be up to the President and Commander in Chief of France."

France "has a nuclear doctrine that insists on the independence of its nuclear decision making," CSIS fellows Chevreuil and Horschig wrote. This position makes it challenging to extend "their nuclear deterrence through stationing their weapons in other countries," they said.

French Nuclear Umbrella Could Help Military Posture

France's push to extend its nuclear umbrella represents a renewed effort to reassert its declining global military influence. Over the past several years, France has been forced to reduce its African footprint.

A series of military coups in Africa from 2020-2023 has led to the termination of long-standing defense agreements with Paris. French influence in nations such as Mali and Niger has ended, while Russia has strengthened its role.

However, recent developments in Ukraine and the US pressure on Europe to shoulder more security responsibilities renewed French efforts to remain militarily relevant.

"France is in a unique position," Macron said. "We have the most effective military in Europe and we possess nuclear deterrence capabilities."

France Plans to Expand Nuclear Capabilities

France also plans to expand its domestic nuclear capabilities. Macron has said France's Luxeuil-Saint-Sauveur air base will become the nation’s fourth nuclear air base by 2035.

Two Rafale squadrons capable of carrying nuclear missiles will be deployed at Luxeuil-Saint-Sauveur air base in eastern France from 2035. They will carry France's future hypersonic nuclear-tipped missiles, which are currently under development.

The installation at Luxeuil-Saint-Sauveur is principally responsible for air-space security and supporting Europe's eastern front. France has seen this as further "strategic signaling" regarding its intent to assume the role of principal defense guarantor in Europe.

Dassault Aviation (DUAVF), which designs and builds the Rafale jet and has a market capitalization of €15 billion, could benefit from France's nuclear plans and exposure to the European defense market. The stock has increased about 50% in the last 12 months.

France Needs to Change Nuclear Umbrella Doctrine

According to Elie Perot, a researcher at the Brussels School of Governance, Centre for Security, Diplomacy, and Strategy, France will need to implement several policy changes to expand its nuclear deterrence.

He said making "a doctrinal adjustment" by including major threats to European security as a "vital interest" for France could be a first step in extending deterrence.

More closely associating other EU nations and NATO allies with France's strategic nuclear exercises could help further assert France's motivation to occupy this new role, he said.

As it stands now, France does not participate in NATO's nuclear planning group and reserves its nuclear weapons for national protection.

"If France wanted to signal its commitment to extending nuclear deterrence to Europe, the simplest step would be to change its nuclear posture to explicitly include Europe," Chatham House's Messmer wrote.

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