U.S. Jobs Data Notably Exceeds Expectations

Snapshot

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its closely watched Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) numbers for October this morning that showed an impressive increase of 531K new jobs for the month. The favorable number surprised analysts who were expecting a more modest increase of only 450K. 

In addition, the NFP results for the 2 prior months were notably revised upwards, with September’s number of only 194K revised much higher to 312K, while August’s number of 366K was revised up to 483K.  

Graphs of seasonally adjusted U.S. Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payroll employment numbers from October 2019 until October of 2021. Source: BLS. 

Detail

Also out today was the U.S. Unemployment Rate that declined to 4.6% from a previous reading of 4.8% and beat the market analysts’ consensus expectation of 4.7%. The number of unemployed in the U.S. was reported at 7.4 million, which continues to trend lower. Despite those improvements, these levels remain higher than the 3.5% unemployment rate and 5.7 million unemployed that was reported in February of 2020 before the COVID-19 pandemic was declared.  

Additional data contained in today’s jobs report were Average Hourly Earnings, which grew by 0.4%, in line with expectations and down from 0.6% in September. Furthermore, wages increased by 4.9% year on year, while Labor Force Participation showed a reading of 61.6%, and Average Hours Worked declined to 34.7.

Overall, the buoyant employment numbers suggest the U.S. job market was notably stronger than had been expected for those months reported and continues to recover well from the COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns, despite concerns to the contrary among many forex market participants.  

Furthermore, the notable increase in October’s Non-Farm Payrolls number and the 2 upward revisions for August and September showed widespread job growth across multiple industries and sectors. Those specific sectors that exhibited growth included transportation, professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, and warehousing. 

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