Elliott Wave: Swiss Franc At Extreme Levels: Will The SNB Step In?

Hello traders,

If you're a regular attendee of our FACE Show hosted daily during the week, you might have noticed the team recently discussed EURCHF, focusing on the extreme levels the Swiss franc is trading at—very close to all-time lows. There's growing speculation about whether the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is preparing to intervene.

While there have been rumors that the SNB is selling francs to institutions, there's no official confirmation, and for now, the central bank appears to be staying in the background. Demand for the franc remains strong in times of uncertainty, which is exactly what we're seeing now amid rising trade tensions and risk-off sentiment.

This strong Swiss franc movement may not be easy to reverse unless the SNB steps in more clearly and confirms its intention to act in the FX market. That kind of shift would be easier to achieve if global stock markets manage to hold recent gains. We're already seeing signs of this, with global trade rhetoric softening—indicating that negotiations may be back on the table.

If risk appetite improves, demand for the franc could weaken, and in that case, we might see a major reversal in EURCHF—something we still believe can happen this year. From an Elliott wave perspective, the recent move looks like a clean impulsive drop, with the fifth wave now potentially in its late stages—possibly forming a wedge.

The 0.90 level is very important, and we would not be surprised to see a turnaround from that area sometime this year.

If you want to stay updated on the Swiss franc and broader market moves, make sure to register for our FACE webinar, where the Forex Analytix team continues to cover key developments.

Trade well.

Forex Analytix