The European Union’s pledge to purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products over the next three years, as part of its trade deal with the U.S., has been met with skepticism from industry experts.
What Happened: President Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with the European Union, under which the EU committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products over the next three years. However, industry analysts have expressed doubts about the feasibility of this pledge, reported MarketWatch.
However, to meet the $750 billion target, the EU would be required to more than triple its annual U.S. energy imports, a move that energy experts have deemed “wholly unrealistic.”
Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, questioned the feasibility of the plan, stating, “While it is possible to imagine an increased level of [energy] exports to Europe, this would be a major upheaval in our energy trade.”
In 2024, U.S. energy exports to the EU totaled $78.5 billion, implying that the EU would have to buy approximately $250 billion per year of energy products from the U.S. for the next three years to reach the $750 billion figure.
Experts also pointed out that energy flows are driven by private-sector buying choices rather than political commitments. Matt Smith, lead U.S. analyst at Kpler, said the $250 billion-a-year figure seems to be a “wholly unrealistic number.”
Rory Johnston, founder of CommodityContext, stated on X, “…even if the $250 bn/yr in E.U. energy purchases from the U.S. pledge wasn’t absurd on its face – it is, for the record.”
“So how would literally any of this work?” he questioned.
Despite ongoing skepticism, some argue that the U.S. could partially offset the EU’s lost Russian supply, given that American LNG exports to Europe have reached record levels. However, meeting the $750 billion commitment largely through LNG would require a scale and pace that surpass current logistical, commercial and infrastructure capabilities within the three-year timeframe of the agreement.
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Why It Matters: The trade deal has been met with criticism from economists and political leaders alike. Prior to the announcement, economists warned that the deal would disproportionately harm American consumers and businesses. Economist Peter Schiff noted that under the new terms, Americans would face higher tariffs on most European goods.
Furthermore, the deal failed to spark significant market gains, with investors focusing on more pressing concerns such as Big Tech earnings and Federal Reserve policy decisions, as highlighted by CNBC commentator, Jim Cramer.
French Prime Minister François Bayrou also criticized the deal, branding it as an act of "submission" by the European Union. The deal sets a blanket 15% tariff on most EU exports to the United States, which is half the 30% Trump had threatened for August 1, but still far above the low single‑digit duties European manufacturers long enjoyed. In exchange, Brussels agreed to buy $750 billion in American energy and steer $600 billion in additional investment into U.S. industry and defense goods over the next several years.
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