Nvidia, Palantir Fuel Historic Tech Rally — And It's Far From Done

In a quarter that began with fears of a tech wreck following President Donald Trump‘s sweeping tariff announcements, Wall Street’s tech darlings pushed sector benchmarks to one of their strongest quarterly gains on record, reigniting optimism for a continued summer rally.

The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund XLK, which tracks the broader tech sector, soared 22% during the second quarter of 2025.

That marked its best quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2020, when central banks pumped liquidity into the system to combat the COVID-19 crisis, and its second-best quarter since the aftermath of the dot-com collapse in 2002.

From the April lows—hit just after Trump’s tariff policies were unveiled—the XLK has rocketed 45%, registering its strongest 13-week rally since June 2020 and second-best since the ETF was launched in 1998.

Chart: Tech Stocks Log Historic Quarter

5 Stocks Drove Over Half Of XLK’s Historic Rally

Five stocks were responsible for about two thirds of the tech sector’s total return during the quarter.

• Nvidia Corp. NVDA was the single most important contributor. Shares of the AI darling jumped 43.2%, contributing 537 basis points, or 5.37%, to XLK’s quarterly performance thanks to its 14.6% weight.
• Microsoft Corp. MSFT followed closely. With a 14.24% weighting, it added 420 basis points to the index through a 31.8% price gain.
• Broadcom Inc. AVGO climbed 62.2%, contributing 229 basis points to the sector performance.
• Oracle Corp. ORCL delivered a 56.5% return in the quarter, driving 154 basis points of performance for XLK.
• Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR rocketed 59.7%, responsible for 141 basis points of the sector’s rise. The rally coincides with the software company’s expansive role within the Trump administration (Palantir received a $30 million contract to develop a tracking platform to aid Immigration and Customs Enforcement).

Together, these five stocks delivered 14.81 percentage points, accounting for nearly 67% of the XLK's total quarterly return.

Read Also: Nvidia’s Big Moment Is Back—Stock Exploded 500% The Last Time This Happened

What To Expect For Tech Stocks In Q3? History Says: Watch July

While the third quarter is generally positive for tech, the gains tend to show up early.

According to Seasonax data, looking at last 20 years the XLK has averaged a 2.7% gain from July 1 to October 1, with gains in 14 of those years.

However, recent third quarters haven't been kind. In 2022, the ETF fell 3.9%. In 2023, it dropped 4.5%. In 2024, it slid another 3.7%.

July, on the other hand, tells a different story.

It's historically the strongest month for tech. XLK has averaged a 2.86% return in July over the past two decades, with gains in 76% of those years.

Golden Cross Signal May Support The Trend

On June 30, the XLK triggered a golden cross, a bullish technical setup where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day average. It often signals the start of a longer-term uptrend.

A backtest of this strategy—buying on the golden cross and selling on the next death cross—shows solid historical performance since 2009.

Only one of the nine trades posted a loss. Most produced double-digit returns, particularly during strong bull markets. The latest signal adds another reason to believe this rally could extend through the summer—at least for now.

Now Read

• Nasdaq 100 Hits Record Highs After 30% Rally: History Suggests It’s Not Done Yet
  

Image: Shutterstock