iPhone Sales Bounce Back In China, But Huawei And Xiaomi Intensify Pressure

China’s smartphone market is set for a significant rebound in the second quarter of 2025, with both Huawei Technologies and Apple Inc. AAPL leading the charge in year-on-year growth, according to preliminary figures from Counterpoint Research.

Huawei is expected to post the highest growth among major brands, potentially taking the top spot in the Chinese market in the second quarter.

Ivan Lam, Senior Research Analyst at Counterpoint Research, notes that Huawei is “still riding high on the loyalty of its core users, who are replacing their old phones with new Huawei releases.”

Also Read: iPhone Sales Rebound In China, But Apple’s Next Move Could Be Risky

Apple’s Strategic Rebound And Market Dynamics

Apple also saw an increase in sales during May, primarily driven by promotional discounts for the iPhone 16 series, especially the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max.

Counterpoint Research Associate Director Ethan Qi stated that “Apple’s May discounts for iPhones bore fruit, coming a week ahead of the 618 shopping festival.”

This move proved effective. Apple ultimately claimed the top spot during the 618 sales period, with three iPhone variants making it onto the bestseller list.

Mengmeng Zhang, Senior Research Analyst at Counterpoint Research, added that the domestic smartphone subsidy boosted the second quarter’s performance, but also flagged risks related to scaling back these subsidies later in the year. While the 618 sales period itself was flat year-on-year, most of the quarter’s growth occurred in May.

Fierce Competition And Apple’s Counter-Moves

The competitive landscape in China remains intense. Xiaomi XIACF XIACY is directly challenging Apple with its new 15S Pro, which is priced lower than iPhone models and eligible for government subsidies, CNBC reported in May.

CEO Lei Jun claims Xiaomi’s Xring O1 chip outperforms Apple’s A18 Pro in heat management during gaming.

To counter this, Apple has reportedly been increasing trade-in prices for iPhones in China to fend off competition in its second-largest market. Trade-in prices refer to the money people in China can receive toward a new iPhone by exchanging their old device.

Furthermore, Apple is working to expand its Apple Intelligence suite to mainland China by integrating Alibaba Group Holding’s BABA updated Qwen3 AI models into devices like iPhones, iPads, and MacBooks. This move signals Apple’s push to gain traction in China while complying with local regulations that require government approval for publicly used AI models.

Global Outlook And Headwinds

Despite the positive outlook for China, the global smartphone market faces some headwinds. Counterpoint Research lowered its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast to 1.9% from 4.2%, citing tariff uncertainties under the Trump administration.

Similarly, IDC cut its 2025 global growth outlook to 0.6% from 2.3%, though it projects China’s shipments to rise 3% thanks to government subsidies.

However, IDC expects Apple’s global shipments to fall 1.9% in 2025 amid Huawei competition, economic headwinds, and a lack of local incentives.

U.S. smartphone growth could also slow to 1.9% in 2025 from 3.3% in 2017, as higher tariff prices weigh on demand.

Price Action: AAPL stock is trading higher by 0.51% to $213.53 at last check Thursday.

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