Here's How Alibaba Trades The Month Following Singles' Day

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd BABA delivered some impressive numbers during its annual Singles’ Day sales event on November 11. Unfortunately for investors, those numbers haven’t translated to the stock market.

Alibaba reported $18 billion in gross merchandise volume on Singles’ Day, up 32 percent from a year ago. The e-commerce giant registered more than 660 million total orders, a 41 percent increase. Order traffic peaked at an incredible 175,000 orders per second.

Unfortunately for Alibaba investors, Singles' Day came the same week of Donald Trump’s surprising victory in the U.S. election. Trump has taken a hard stance against trade with China throughout the campaign season, even proposing a potential 45 percent tariff on Chinese goods.

Fearful investors have dumped Alibaba stock, sending it plummeting 7.0 percent since the election. Following a Tuesday bounce, the stock is essentially flat since Singles’ Day.

3 Years Of Data

Looking back, there is a small sample size to use to predict how Aibaba stock might perform in the coming month.

Last year, the stock barely moved in the month following Singles’ Day, dropping 0.1 percent.

In 2014, Singles’ Day came less than two months after Alibaba’s IPO. In the month following the event, shares fell 8.3 percent. However, much of that movement was likely still IPO-related volatility. In the month prior to Singles’ Day, Alibaba stock was up 34.5 percent.

The Future May Hold A Different Story

There is too much noise and too small of a sample size for traders to identify any reliable trend between Singles' Day numbers and Alibaba’s share price. However, long-term Alibaba investors can take comfort in the fact that the company continues to deliver consistently impressive growth numbers.

Disclosure: The author is long BABA.