Thursday's Market Minute: Will ARKK Stay Afloat Against Technical Tides?

The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) is at a potentially critical point on the charts. Cathie Wood’s flagship fund is down about 4.5% on the year after facing choppy waters in terms of price action, although more recently it’s up over 11% since recent lows on Oct. 4. Yet now, ARKK seems to have faced rejection at the intersection of the yearly Linear Regression Line and the top of a downward trendline formed by the June and September highs near 120. The Linear Regression Line itself is notable because it’s practically flat with only a slight downward tilt, meaning that the “line of best fit” reflects almost no directional trend based on the past year’s closing prices.

If the rally continues, look for potential resistance in the 122-124 area, as this represents both the 200-day Simple Moving Average and the area of heaviest trading activity according to the yearly Volume Profile Point of Control. If the advance falters, bulls may look to regroup near 117, which is the confluence of the 50-day Simple Moving Average and the 63-day Exponential Moving Average. At longer-term levels, the area near 114 has been a frequent point of both support and resistance, so this could be another place to watch. Beyond that, look for the lower level of the downward channel formed by the previously mentioned trendline, and another parallel line connecting the July and October lows, currently about 105.

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