Analyst Sees Battery EV Sales Rise Over 8-Fold In Next Five Years — Elon Musk Says He Senses A 'Trend'

Cathie Wood-led Ark Invest said on Monday global battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales will grow at an annual rate of 53% over the next five years.

What Happened: Ark research analyst Sam Korus estimates the global BEV sales will reach 40 million in 2026, from 4.8 million units in 2021, based on Wright’s Law.

Ark Invest, which is led by popular Tesla Inc TSLA bull Cathie Wood, centers all its research around Wright’s law to forecast percentage cost declines and other metrics, especially in the electric vehicle sector. 

Korus in November said he expects a major adoption cycle for electric vehicles would kick in over the next few years when prices drop to $25,000 levels.

Just last year, BEV sales jumped a record 112% to 2.3 million units, Korus said citing data from EV Data Center.  

“Prior to last year, the most rapid annual growth rate in BEVs was 75% in 2012 on a much lower base, roughly 41,000 vehicles,” Korus wrote in a note.

“Interestingly, the Wuling Mini EV, a ~$5,000 neighbourhood electric vehicle, increased its share of BEVs from 5% in 2020 to 9%.”

The Hongguang Mini EV is built by Wuling — a partnership between China’s state-owned SAIC Motor and General Motors Co GM. 

See Also: Why Cathie Wood's Ark Expects Next Major EV Adoption Cycle Around $25,000 Price Point

Why It Matters: Late to the party, legacy automakers across the world are quickly readying their electric vehicle lineup to play catchup with the Elon Musk-led Tesla, the current industry leader. 

I sense a trend

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 25, 2022

GM, Ford Motor Co F and Volkswagen Group VWAGY are spending billions of dollars to switch their entire portfolio to electric vehicles from gas-powered engines. Tesla too is ramping up capacity with new gigafactories in Berlin and Texas. 

EV startups in China such as Nio Inc NIO and Xpeng Inc XPEV have been able to quickly establish a strong product lineup in their home country and are now looking at expansion overseas. 

Price Action: Tesla shares closed 1.47% lower at $930 a share.