Tension Between Russia And Ukraine Re-Escalating: An Attack Could Come 'Without Warning'

Russia troops will be extending military drills with Belarus involving about 30,000 troops near Ukraine’s border.

What Happened: Citing escalating violence in eastern Ukraine, Belarus government officials have announced that the exercises, which had been scheduled to wrap up this weekend, will now continue indefinitely. The announcement comes after Russian-backed forces accused Ukraine of shelling civilian areas in territories under their control.

Belarus’s Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said bordering countries are being “pumped with modern weaponry,” and the joint force exercises will ensure readiness due to an "increase in military activity" near the Belarusian border.

Ukrainian military spokesman Dmytro Lutsyuk said on Sunday that there have been 20 incidents of artillery fire by Russian-led forces in a 24-hour period, and that one Ukrainian soldier was wounded by shrapnel and taken to a hospital, according to the Wall Street Journal

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told CNBC that Russia could “launch an attack on Ukraine without any warning at all. No one is denying that Russia has all these forces in place.”

He noted that President Joe Biden already indicated that U.S. intelligence is warning that an invasion is imminent. “NATO allies and the United States have the same assessment, that it’s a very high risk for a Russian attack on Ukraine,” Stoltenberg said.

Why It Matters: According to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, up to 190,000 Russian troops are currently massed along Ukraine's border. Experts say a Russian invasion of Ukraine could lead to sanctions, countersanctions, energy supply issues, and a massive number of refugees.

Russia is a major exporter of oil and natural gas, providing about 40% of the natural gas used by the Europe Union, and a war could lead to a significant disruption. A conflict could also impact oil prices, something Biden addressed last Tuesday, promising to work with Congress to mitigate "the impact of prices at the pump."

Photo: Courtesy of Metal Chris on Flickr