Here's How RBC Capital Viewed Meta

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  • RBC Capital analyst Brad Erickson reiterated Outperform on Meta Platforms Inc FB, but lowered the price target from $245 to $240 (11.3% upside).
  • Another round of SMB ad agency channel checks raised the conviction that FB will likely see another rocky quarter, prompting lower estimates and PT to $240. 
  • The beneficiaries from FB erosion appear largely unchanged: Alphabet Inc GOOG GOOGL, Tiktok, Influencers, and Microsoft Corp MSFT LinkedIn.
  • Digital ad spending decisions remain in flux, with many SMBs considering new channels away from FB for the first time.
  • Erickson detected no perceived improvement to FB's targeting algo or performance. 
  • Erickson saw some reversion at some point given FB's audience size and relative scaled conversion advantage (which kept it at Outperform) but saw that narrative as unlikely to materialize near-term. 
  • Price Action: FB shares traded higher by 0.91% at $216.06 on the last check Wednesday.
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