Why Is A Victory In Ukraine Before May 9 So Important For Vladimir Putin?

After more than 50 days since Ukraine’s Russian invasion began, the whole world continues to witness a bloody war that adds new deaths, injuries, refugees, and displaces people every day.

The number of deaths in the conflict is for now difficult to estimate and the balances vary according to the organization or the government that offers the information. According to the United Nations data, as of April 18th, since the beginning of the invasion, at least 2,072 civilians died, of which 169 were children. However, the agency warns there is still information to be verified from some areas of Ukraine, so the figure could be much higher.

What for Russian President Vladimir Putin began as a lightning-fast operation in Ukrainian territory, has ended up becoming a real headache for Kremlin, which has run into a stronger Ukrainian resistance than it probably expected to find.

Surprisingly for many, Kyiv has not fallen in a matter of days (as some predicted), nor Ukraine has laid down its arms to the Russian bear, which is far superior militarily. In the meantime, days and weeks go by and Russia is still not achieving its initial goals while the war drags on.

"This war, unfortunately, will not stop in the coming days," French President Emmanuel Macron predicted in early April in an interview with RTL. Macron also anticipated that Putin will want to achieve a victory specifically by May 9, a date that some sources and experts have also mentioned previously. But, why is this day so special?

What does May 9 mean for Russia?

May 9 is Victory Day, a very important holiday in Russia, Belarus and some former Soviet republics as it commemorates the victory of the Soviet Union over Nazi Germany on May 9th, 1945 during World War II. The end of this conflict ushered in a new era, which was marked by the so-called "Iron Curtain" and the Cold War, separating both ideologically and physically the Soviet part in Eastern Europe and the Western countries. A barrier that stood up until 1989, when it ended up disappearing with the fall of the Berlin Wall.

How is this day celebrated in Russia?

Every year, Moscow hosts military and veterans' parades on Red Square, recently moved to Poklónnaya Hill. In addition, wreaths are placed at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier and the day ends with fireworks in the skies of the entire city.

This year, despite there still being a few weeks to go, the preparations have already started. The streets of the Russian capital are beginning to be decorated to celebrate its former victory, as well as the hypothetical and long-awaited victory by Putin in Ukraine. In fact, such is the importance of this crucial date for the Russian president, that during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, these parades were held without exception despite WHO’s warnings.

 Celebration of Victory Day in 2021 in Moscow. Youtube screenshot.

Why is it celebrated on two different days in Europe?

The Nazi Army signed its surrender to the Red Army on May 8, 1945, at 10:43 p.m. Central European Time, that is, on May 9 at 12:43 a.m. Moscow time. This difference explains why in Western countries the victory is celebrated on May 8th, while in Eastern Europe, it is celebrated a day later.

Will this date be key for the development of Ukraine’s war?

Given the big importance of this celebration for Russia and, in particular, for Putin, it wouldn’t be surprising if he tries to intensify his offensive in Ukraine even more as the date approaches in order to achieve something that could serve him as a victory before that day.

Currently, the Russian Army seems to intensify its offensive in the Donbas area, and also in Mariupol, a city that it almost completely dominates. "I think we are going to experience very hard scenes in the coming days and weeks in Donbas" and "there won’t be many diplomatic concessions from Russia," Macron had warned days ago.

This key holiday serves among other things as a showcase to show military muscle so, in the middle of the war context where it will be held this year, it will be the perfect opportunity for Russia to boast of a victory that has not been achieved so far, but that the Kremlin's propaganda is already beginning to sell as real.

This article was originally published on Benzinga's Spanish Website — Benzinga España.