RBC Segregates Walled Garden Advertisers Like Amazon, Google From Open-Internet Players Like Magnite, PubMatic, Tremor & Trade Desk

RBC Capital analyst Matthew Swanson acknowledged that earnings to date from walled-garden advertisers split into two groups, and stocks have reacted accordingly, showing investors willing to reward upside against negative sentiment into earnings.
Specifically, Amazon.com Inc AMZN and Alphabet Inc GOOG GOOGL were the only names to top consensus estimates by an average of 1.1%, while the remaining social players missed by an average of 5%.
Since the start of the earnings season, he saw walled gardens decline by 11.8%, while open-internet companies have reduced by 7.5% in sympathy.
To that extent, he felt negative sentiment at least partially priced into the print.
Based on peer results, he felt that open-internet players in his coverage, including Magnite, Inc MGNI (Outperperform; Price Target: $22), PubMatic, Inc PUBM (Outperform; PT: $33), Tremor International Ltd TRMR (Outperform; PT: $21), and The Trade Desk, Inc TTD (Outperform; PT: $85), were more similar to the omnichannel revenue of GOOGL and AMZN than the walled gardens, creating a more defensible position for Q2 results.
That said, the 4.3% reduction in Q3 consensus estimates for reported wall-garden peers that he saw to date directionally reflected the conservatism he anticipated in Q3 for companies, given the challenging macro and uncertainty around the timing of robust political spend.
Price Action: MGNI shares traded higher by 0.86% at $7.71 on the last check Monday.

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