Putin's Original Plan In Disarray As Ukraine Forces Batter Russia's Black Sea Fleet, Say Experts

Experts believe Ukraine's missile and drone attacks are battering Russia's Black Sea Fleet — which was once considered central to Vladimir Putin's initial plan to take over Ukraine — can turn the tide in the war. 

What Happened: When Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, the Crimea-based fleet was at the center of Putin's attempt to conquest Ukraine. The fleet launched multiple missile attacks at military and civilian targets, blocking access to the country's ports.

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However, Kyiv wreaked havoc on the Russian fleet with its missile and drone attacks, devastating its Crimea-based air wing and sinking several vessels — including the flagship guided missile cruiser, the Moskva.

"The Black Sea Fleet ... has demonstrated a lack of seriousness in how the fleet has prepared, positioned itself, and conducted operations given the threat of Ukrainian resistance," Michael Kofman, director of the Russia Studies Program for the Virginia-based think tank CNA told Politico.

The report noted that Ukraine's defense system has been fierce, and the country's domestically developed Neptune anti-ship missile — which sank the Moskva — forced the Russian fleets to stay away for months.

Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute who tracks the militaries of Russia and Ukraine, said, "The losses to Russian amphibious ships are arguably more important than the Moskva."

Lee added that the losses in the Black Sea impeded Russia's ability to move its army and equipment around Crimea by sea and have made Putin more hesitant to use the modern landing ships it transferred from the Northern and Baltic fleets just before the war.

An anonymous senior Defense Department official told the publication that the "Russian forces are much more vulnerable than they thought they were" before the war.

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